Spitz has been bullish on markets for the past 3 years.

The claim is that Mark Spitznagel (Universa) was bullish on markets throughout roughly September 2022 to September 2025. True: Spitznagel's public statements over that period (interviews, letters, op-eds) consistently expressed a bullish near-term view on equities, such as expecting a rally or melt-up before any crash. Mostly true: he was predominantly bullish over most of the period, with a short or minor exception. Mixed: his statements were roughly balanced, with many bearish or crash warnings alongside bullish calls. Mostly false: he was mostly bearish, with only occasional bullish statements. False: he was consistently bearish throughout the period.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 ‘Black Swan’ investor still sees a ‘euphoric high’ ahead and doesn’t think the largest bubble ever is bursting yet—but then there could be an 80% crash | Fortune Fortune · 1 April 2025

   “But in fact, he has been bullish on the market since 2022 and still feels that way.”

2. E2 The hedge funder who’s made billions providing ‘insurance’ against market crashes insists he’s no permabear: ‘Cassandras make terrible investors’ | Fortune Fortune · 6 April 2024

   “He argued in his 2023 investor letter, seen by Fortune, that a stock market rally was coming, and has said publicly on multiple occasions that until the Fed starts slashing rates, markets will likely keep rising.”

3. E3 ‘Black Swan’ investor still sees a ‘euphoric high’ ahead and doesn’t think the largest bubble ever is bursting yet—but then there could be an 80% crash | Fortune Fortune · 1 April 2025

   “I think the market’s going to crash, like, 80%.”

4. E4 Report: 'Black Swan' fund manager Mark Spitznagel expects worst stock market crash since 1929 The Edge Malaysia · 7 May 2024

   “Spitznagel said he continues to expect a blowoff, and then expects a crash that will be the worst since 1929.”

Fortune reported in April 2025 that Spitznagel "has been bullish on the market since 2022 and still feels that way" [E1]. Fortune in April 2024 also reported that his 2023 investor letter said a rally was coming, and that he had said publicly several times that markets would likely keep rising until the Fed cut rates [E2]. His crash warnings were framed as coming after a "blowoff" or "euphoric high" [E3, E4], which fits the criteria's definition of a bullish near-term view that expects a melt-up before a crash. The evidence runs only to April 2025, but it shows no bearish exception during the period.