ClaimsNassim Taleb

“It is worth noting that binary options on financial”

Taleb and co-authors, paper authors 2023 The Probability Conflation: A Reply (arXiv) archived copy

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Factual Economics and markets

Binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value and are not considered an investment in the U.S. and the European Union.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts: (a) binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value; (b) they are not considered an investment in the US and the EU. True: regulators' records show both parts. For example, US regulators (SEC/CFTC) warn about or restrict retail binary options and treat them as gambling-like rather than as investment products, and ESMA prohibited their marketing to retail clients in the EU in 2018 (made permanent by national regulators), on the grounds that they offer little investment value. Mostly true: the substance holds, but a detail is overstated, e.g. the US still permits regulated exchange-listed binary options (Nadex/CFTC) even though they are not treated as conventional investments, or the EU ban covers only retail clients. Mixed: one part holds and the other does not. Mostly false: regulators restrict them in some way but formally treat them as financial instruments or investments in both jurisdictions, and the 'not an investment' framing distorts this. False: binary options are recognized and treated as ordinary investments in both the US and the EU, with no such regulatory finding.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS: ESMA's product intervention measures in relation to CFDs and binary options offered to retail investors European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) · 27 March 2018

    “Due to the characteristics of binary options, retail investors on average lose money with these products and there is no clear alternative investment purpose for them (e.g. hedging of risk).”
  2. E2 ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs to protect retail investors European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) · 27 March 2018

    “the particular features of CFDs – excessive leverage – and binary options - structural expected negative return and embedded conflict of interest between providers and their clients; the disparity between the expected return and the risk of loss”
  3. E3 Decision - 2018/795 - EN - EUR-Lex EUR-Lex (Publications Office of the European Union) · 1 June 2018

    “European Securities and Markets Authority Decision (EU) 2018/795 of 22 May 2018 to temporarily prohibit the marketing, distribution or sale of binary options to retail clients in the Union”
  4. E4 Investor Alert: Binary Options and Fraud | Investor.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) · 6 June 2013

    “For example, some binary options may be securities. Under the federal securities laws, a company may not lawfully offer or sell securities unless the offer and sale have been registered with the SEC or an exemption from such registration applies.”

Reasoning

ESMA found that retail investors lose money on average with binary options, that the products have a structurally negative expected return, and that they have no clear alternative investment purpose (E1, E2). It then prohibited their marketing, distribution or sale to retail clients in the EU, though as a temporary measure (E3). This supports the claim of little economic value and broadly supports the EU part, with the ban limited to retail clients. For the US, the SEC/CFTC investor alert (E4) says some binary options may be securities subject to registration, which cuts against the claim that they are not considered an investment in the US, so the US half of part (b) is not shown.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value and are not considered an investment in the U.S. and the European Union.” (said 2023). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_4360d58904c5, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4360d58904c5

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Nassim Taleb

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    “My point was that bike lanes contribute to IMPROVEMENT in well-being and happiness WITHOUT generating economic growth.”

    Taleb's point was that bike lanes improve well-being and happiness without generating economic growth.

  2. Resolved true Factual 22 September 2025
    “The entire article misses the point that Spitz has been bullish past 3 years.”

    Spitz has been bullish on markets for the past 3 years.

  3. Mostly true Factual 2023
    “they are banned by most corresponding regulators, as they are”

    Binary options are banned by most corresponding regulators in the U.S. and the European Union because they are considered gambling devices.

  4. Mostly false Factual November 2021
    “We know that economic forecasts work no better than astrology”

    Economic forecasts work no better than astrology.

  5. Mostly false Factual July 2020
    “In insurance, for instance, one never uses survival functions for hedging, but rather expected shortfalls”

    In insurance, survival functions are never used for hedging; expected shortfalls are used instead.

All of them

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