ClaimsNassim Taleb

“they are banned by most corresponding regulators, as they are”

Taleb and co-authors, paper authors 2023 The Probability Conflation: A Reply (arXiv) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Binary options are banned by most corresponding regulators in the U.S. and the European Union because they are considered gambling devices.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

True: as of 2023, binary options are banned or prohibited (at least for retail investors) by most of the relevant regulators in both the US and the EU, and those regulators cite gambling-like features as a reason. Mostly true: there is a ban across the EU (for example, ESMA's 2018 retail ban and the national measures that followed it) and broad restriction in the US, with a minor discrepancy, such as a US ban only on unregistered or off-exchange binary options while exchange-traded ones are allowed, or a stated reason of investor protection rather than 'gambling' as such. Mixed: binary options are banned in one jurisdiction (EU or US) but are legal and regulated in the other. Mostly false: there are only partial restrictions in both and no general ban. False: binary options are not banned in either jurisdiction.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs to protect retail investors European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) · 27 March 2018

    “Binary Options - a prohibition on the marketing, distribution or sale of binary options to retail investors; and”
  2. E2 FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) · 27 March 2018

    “Economically, binary options are inherently like gambling products which are not suitable for the purpose of hedging or for other economic functions that could form a compensating benefit.”
  3. E3 Product intervention Autoriteit Financiële Markten (AFM, Netherlands)

    “Binary options are high-risk products, which almost always lead to losses in the long term. Therefore, there is a ban on selling binary options in or from the Netherlands to retail investors.”
  4. E4 Beware of Off-Exchange Binary Options Trades U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

    “Binary options are legal and available to trade in the U.S. but they must be traded on a regulated U.S. exchange.”

Reasoning

ESMA banned the marketing, distribution and sale of binary options to retail investors (E1) and described them as "inherently like gambling products" (E2). The Dutch AFM also bans selling binary options to retail investors in or from the Netherlands (E3). In the US, the CFTC says binary options are legal but must be traded on a regulated US exchange (E4), so only off-exchange trading is barred. The criteria name exactly this US situation, where exchange-traded binary options are allowed, as a minor discrepancy that still counts as mostly true.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Binary options are banned by most corresponding regulators in the U.S. and the European Union because they are considered gambling devices.” (said 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_8eab296f9320, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8eab296f9320

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nassim Taleb, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  3. Mixed Factual 2023
    “It is worth noting that binary options on financial”

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  4. Mostly false Factual November 2021
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    Economic forecasts work no better than astrology.

  5. Mostly false Factual July 2020
    “In insurance, for instance, one never uses survival functions for hedging, but rather expected shortfalls”

    In insurance, survival functions are never used for hedging; expected shortfalls are used instead.

All of them

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