ClaimsWarren Buffett

“there will be fraud connected with it”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire CEO 15 December 2020 CNBC Transcript: Buffett and David Solomon (Dec 2020) (CNBC) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

there will be fraud connected with it

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True: authoritative sources (DOJ prosecutions or convictions, SBA Office of Inspector General or GAO reports, or Pandemic Response Accountability Committee findings) document fraud connected with the Paycheck Protection Program, including loans made in its continued/expanded rounds after December 2020. Mostly true: fraud is documented in PPP but cannot be tied specifically to the continued or expanded rounds. Mostly false: only isolated allegations, with no charges or official findings. False: official reviews conclude that no material fraud occurred in the program.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 OIG Final Report 23-01 Top Management and Performance Challenges Facing the Small Business Administration in Fiscal Year 2023 U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Inspector General · 14 October 2022

    “To quickly distribute funds during an economic crisis, SBA eased internal controls that could have helped to mitigate fraud and misuse of taxpayer funds. We believe this is the tip of a much larger iceberg, and we are working to identify the full extent of PPP fraud.”

  2. E2 OIG Final Report 23-01 Top Management and Performance Challenges Facing the Small Business Administration in Fiscal Year 2023 U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Inspector General · 14 October 2022

    “In March 2021, SBA issued an interim final rule that allowed individuals who filed an IRS Form 1040, Schedule C, to calculate their maximum loan amount using gross income rather than net income (Report 22-09).”

  3. E3 OIG Final Report 23-01 Top Management and Performance Challenges Facing the Small Business Administration in Fiscal Year 2023 U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Inspector General · 14 October 2022

    “Data shows that 7 of the top 15 lenders made more than 2.4 million loans in 2021, or more than 18,000 loans per day, after having made fewer than 22,000 PPP loans combined in 2020.”

  4. E4 OIG Final Report 23-01 Top Management and Performance Challenges Facing the Small Business Administration in Fiscal Year 2023 U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Inspector General · 14 October 2022

    “We note that multiple borrowers in this group of identified loans have already been arrested and others are under active investigation.”

Reasoning

On checking, the evidence does not settle the claim under its criteria.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “there will be fraud connected with it” (said 15 December 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c30a2364d8ab, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c30a2364d8ab

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 27 February 2017
    “And I think they will end up going for something not as dramatic as they might even like to do because they simply don't want to spend the time and the political capital getting it done.”

    Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “we will get out of it.”

    The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “I don’t think they’ll end up being passed for no one.”

    Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2007
    “Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide.”

    Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “A decade from now, HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger.”

    HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.