ClaimsNate Silver

“at this point I think I'd consider Democrats a little bit over fifty percent to retake the White House”

Nate Silver, podcast co-host 8 April 2025 Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs (Risky Business) (iHeart)

Prediction AI policy and governance Political

In April 2025, Silver said that at that point he would consider Democrats a little over 50% likely to retake the White House in 2028.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-10

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “In April 2025, Silver said that at that point he would consider Democrats a little over 50% likely to retake the White House in 2028.” (said 8 April 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_bc5e495505d2, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bc5e495505d2

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Resolved true Prediction 30 June 2022
    “If the GOP takes over the House next year one thing you can be pretty sure of is COVID panels/investigations.”

    If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations.

  2. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 13 August 2024
    “I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”

    Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.

  4. Mixed Prediction 8 September 2023
    “Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and it will be nine months to a year before they do.”

    Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

    Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.