Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess.

This is a probabilistic prediction (80%) that Libya would 'remain a mess' through 2016. Judge whether the predicted outcome happened by 31 December 2016. Read 'a mess' as continued instability: rival governments or authorities competing for legitimacy, ongoing armed conflict between factions or militias, or no single government with effective control of the country. TRUE: at the end of 2016, Libya still had competing governments or authorities and/or significant ongoing armed conflict, and no unified government controlled most of the country. MOSTLY TRUE: instability clearly continued, with some limited improvement (for example a UN-backed government partly installed) that did not end the fragmentation. MIXED: by the end of 2016 the country had substantially but incompletely consolidated, so that reasonable observers disagree about whether it was still 'a mess'. MOSTLY FALSE: most fighting had ended and a single government held effective control of most territory, with only limited pockets of instability. FALSE: by the end of 2016 Libya was broadly unified and stable under one recognised government, with no significant armed conflict. Scott Alexander's own published grading of his 2016 predictions may be used as supporting evidence, but the actual state of Libya governs.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 World Report 2017: Rights Trends in Libya Human Rights Watch · 12 January 2017

   “The United Nations-backed, internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) struggled in 2016 to assert itself in the capital Tripoli, as two authorities—one also based in Tripoli and another in eastern Libya—continued to compete for legitimacy and control over resources and infrastructure.”

2. E2 World Report 2017: Rights Trends in Libya Human Rights Watch · 12 January 2017

   “In the absence of a state authority exercising control over the national territory, dozens of rival militia groups and military forces, with varying agendas and allegiances, continued to flout international law with impunity.”

3. E3 Political accord's slow implementation has not brought peace and stability Libyans deserve – Ban UN News (United Nations) · 17 December 2016

   “The Secretary-General cautions, however, that the slow pace of implementation of the Agreement has not brought the stability and security the Libyan people need and deserve,”

4. E4 Political accord's slow implementation has not brought peace and stability Libyans deserve – Ban UN News (United Nations) · 17 December 2016

   “points out that much has been achieved in the past year: the Presidency Council was formed and operates from Tripoli; oil production has increased; and significant advances have been made against terrorism across the country.”

Human Rights Watch's report on 2016 says the UN-backed Government of National Accord struggled to assert itself in Tripoli. It also says two other authorities, one in Tripoli and one in the east, kept competing for legitimacy and control (E1). It adds that no state authority controlled the national territory and that dozens of rival militias and armed forces were active (E2). In December 2016 the UN Secretary-General said implementation of the political agreement had not brought stability or security (E3), though some progress had been made (E4). At the end of 2016 Libya still had competing authorities and no unified government in control, which meets the TRUE criterion.