ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“the 3% of GDP that was made up of fi nancial services in 1965 was clearly suffi cient to the task”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, writing in GMO Quarterly Letter July 2010 GMO Quarterly Letter July 2010 Summer Essays (GMO) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Financial services made up 3% of GDP in 1965, and that decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The checkable part is the factual figure that financial services made up 3% of US GDP in 1965. 'Greatest economic decade' is an opinion framed as a 'candidate', so only check that it is a defensible view (e.g. strong 1960s growth). True: BEA or standard historical data put the financial-services (finance and insurance) share of GDP in 1965 at about 3% (within ±0.5 percentage points). Mostly true: the share is within ±1 point on the measure nearest to Grantham's (e.g. 3.5–4%). Mixed: 3% matches only a narrow definition, while standard measures give 4–5%. Mostly false: standard measures are well above 3% (over 4.5%) and no reasonable definition gives about 3%, though the share was still far below its 2000s level. False: the 1965 share was nowhere near 3% on any measure (e.g. it was as high as later decades), or the 1960s were plainly weak economically.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 The Growth of Finance, In Graphs Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) · 11 April 2016

    “During the 1940s to 1970s, finance typically accounted for about 3 to 4 percent of GDP; by 2005 and 2006, just before the financial crisis, finance claimed 7.6 percent of GDP.”

Reasoning

E1, an independent CEPR analysis, says finance typically made up about 3 to 4 percent of GDP from the 1940s to the 1970s, against 7.6 percent in 2005–2006. E1 gives no figure for 1965 itself, but 1965 falls within the period it describes, so a share typical of that period would be within about one point of Grantham's 3% figure [E1]. E1 gives no exact 1965 number, so it does not confirm the tighter ±0.5-point band needed for a full "true". The view that the 1960s were among the century's greatest economic decades is framed as opinion, and the evidence does not contradict it.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Financial services made up 3% of GDP in 1965, and that decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century.” (said July 2010). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b9cd35448307, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b9cd35448307

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Jeremy Grantham

  1. Mostly false Factual 28 July 2025
    “the lowest rates in the history of man,”

    Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.

  2. Mostly true Factual 28 July 2025
    “31 years later, the land is not back, and stocks are not back.”

    Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels.

  3. Mostly true Factual 28 July 2025
    “one of the two or three lowest relative points in history”

    Emerging markets and value stocks trade at one of the two or three lowest relative valuation points in history compared to the U.S.

  4. Mostly true Factual 5 July 2023
    “Now we have, since ChatGPT and October and November last year, we have a new little flurry of interest that is very concentrated.”

    Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated.

  5. Mixed Factual January 2023
    “in 1974 the market did turn up, after a horrific 62% real decline in two years, exactly”

    In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.