Once the Fed stops raising rates or pivots to cuts, gold will act as a hedge.

The trigger is the Fed's last hike of the 2022–23 cycle (the pause) or its first cut, whichever comes first. The claim is judged over the 12 months after the trigger. 'Gold is a hedge' means gold kept or increased its value in real terms and did better than cash or Treasury bills over that window, especially during any inflation or market stress. True: the gold price (LBMA/spot USD) rose by more than CPI inflation over the 12 months after the pause and also over the 12 months after the first cut. Mostly true: gold beat inflation over one of these windows and was roughly flat in real terms over the other. Mixed: gold gained in nominal terms but roughly matched or trailed inflation, or results split clearly between the two windows. Mostly false: gold lost a little in real terms over both windows. False: gold fell clearly in nominal terms after the Fed paused or pivoted. If the Fed never paused or cut, the claim cannot be resolved.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Federal Reserve Board · 26 July 2023

   “In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.”

2. E2 Gold slips for eighth straight session on Fed rate-hike worries CNBC · 4 October 2023

   “Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,821.69 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower $1,834.80.”

3. E3 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 20 September 2023

   “In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.”

E1 shows the Fed raised the federal funds target range to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent on 2023-07-26. E3 shows it held that range on 2023-09-20, which points to a pause and so a trigger date. E2 gives gold prices for a single day only (spot gold at $1,821.69 and US gold futures at $1,834.80 on 2023-10-04). The evidence has no gold prices 12 months after the pause or after any first cut, and no CPI figures for either window. Without those, the criteria cannot be applied.