ClaimsRay Dalio

“Cash, we know that bonds are going to two and a quarter percent.”

Ray Dalio, interviewed on Bloomberg 17 September 2015 Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Interview on Bloomberg (Market Folly) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge over 10 years, from September 2015 to September 2025. The measure is the annualized total return of US investment-grade bonds: the Bloomberg US Aggregate index, or a 10-year Treasury bought in September 2015 at about a 2.2% yield. About 2.25% means within ±0.5 percentage points. TRUE: the annualized return was between 1.75% and 2.75%. MOSTLY TRUE: the return was 1.5–1.75% or 2.75–3.0%. MIXED: the return was 1.0–1.5% or 3.0–3.5%. MOSTLY FALSE: the return was 0.5–1.0% or 3.5–4.0%. FALSE: the return was below 0.5% or above 4.0%. If the Aggregate index and the held-to-maturity Treasury give different bands, use the Aggregate index's total return and note the other.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Bloomberg US Aggregate - Live Performance & Historical Returns YCharts

    “Name 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y Bloomberg US Aggregate 2.23% -0.24% -0.87% -0.14% 4.60% -0.16% 1.44% 1.91% As of November 03, 2026. Returns for periods of 1 year and above are annualized.”

  2. E2 Bloomberg US Aggregate - Live Performance & Historical Returns YCharts

    “Name 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 YTD Bloomberg US Aggregate 8.72% 7.51% -1.54% -13.01% 5.53% 1.25% 7.30% -0.70%”

  3. E3 [PDF] Third Quarter 2025 Bond Market Review and Outlook CAM (Cambridge/CAM investment grade and high yield bond managers, cambonds.com) · 13 May 2026

    “Bloomberg Bond Indices Returns vs. CAM Gross (annualized %) Periods ended 09/30/2025 10-yrs 20-yrs U.S. Aggregate 1.84 3.23”

  4. E4 [PDF] Third Quarter 2025 Bond Market Review and Outlook CAM (Cambridge/CAM investment grade and high yield bond managers, cambonds.com) · 13 May 2026

    “The 2yr, 5yr and 10yr Treasuries finished the period 11, 6 and 8 basis points lower ending at 3.61%, 3.74%, and 4.15%, respectively”

Reasoning

E3, a bond manager's Q3 2025 review, gives the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate's annualized 10-year total return as 1.84% for the period ended 09/30/2025. That window closely matches September 2015 to September 2025. The figure falls inside the 1.75%–2.75% band the criteria set for TRUE. The 1.44% 10-year figure in E1 is for a later window ending November 2026, so it does not measure the period in the criteria.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years.” (said 17 September 2015). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b38aa21ba198, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b38aa21ba198

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Dalio, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Ray Dalio

  1. Mostly true Prediction 10 June 2025
    “Yeah, we're going to have about a 7% deficit as a percentage of GDP.”

    If current congressional plans go forward, the US federal deficit will be about 7% of GDP.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 25 October 2020
    “Over the next five years, you’re going to see a lot of decoupling.”

    There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think you will see greater interest rate cuts as you start to see the world economy starting to slow down.”

    Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “In an evolutionary way, over the next one, two and three years, there will be a turn for the worse, yes.”

    Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think that in the next two years, let's say prior to the next election, there's probably a 40 percent chance of a recession.”

    Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.