Markets have just seen the bear market rally stage of the superbubble pattern.

Judge mainly on the S&P 500 (Nasdaq as a secondary check). The claim is that the market had just seen a bear market rally: a substantial rally from a 2022 bear-market low that ended within weeks of 31 August 2022 and stayed below the January 2022 high. Because whether a rally was a 'bear market rally' depends on what followed, price action into early 2023 may be used. True: the index rose about 10% or more from its 2022 low to a summer peak, stayed below the January 2022 high, and then fell back to or below the earlier 2022 low. Mostly true: the rally and failure happened, but the later decline did not quite reach the earlier low. Mostly false: there was a rally, but it was followed by a sustained advance that never meaningfully retested the earlier low. False: no meaningful rally occurred in the period before 31 August 2022. Whether the rally fits Grantham's 'superbubble' framework is interpretation and is not tested.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 ENTERING THE SUPERBUBBLE'S FINAL ACT GMO (Jeremy Grantham Viewpoints) · 31 August 2022 Own record

   “In 2022, at the intraday peak on August 16th, the S&P had made back 58% of its losses since its June low.”

2. E2 ENTERING THE SUPERBUBBLE'S FINAL ACT GMO (Jeremy Grantham Viewpoints) · 31 August 2022 Own record

   “This summer’s rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern.”

3. E3 ENTERING THE SUPERBUBBLE'S FINAL ACT GMO (Jeremy Grantham Viewpoints) · 31 August 2022 Own record

   “the actual P/E just rose from 30x to 34x in mid-August in what was probably a bear market rally.”

4. E4 Entering the Superbubble's Final Act GMO (Jeremy Grantham Viewpoints) · 31 August 2022 Own record

   “In 2022, at the intraday peak on August 16th, the S&P had made back 58% of its losses since its June low.”

5. E5 Entering the Superbubble's Final Act GMO (Jeremy Grantham Viewpoints) · 31 August 2022 Own record

   “the actual P/E just rose from 30x to 34x in mid-August in what was probably a bear market rally.”

6. E6 A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It? Carson Group · 9 June 2023

   “The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak.”

7. E7 A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It? Carson Group · 9 June 2023

   “The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.”

The independent evidence shows the S&P 500 fell 25% from its January 2022 peak to a 12 October 2022 low and later rose 20% from that low [E6][E7]. The only evidence of a summer rally is the subject's own statement that the index won back 58% of its losses since the June low [E1]. No item gives the size of that rally, so the rise of about 10% or more that the criteria require is not shown.