In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of April 2011. Test the estimate itself against contemporaneous credible estimates of the full-cycle (marginal) cost of finding and developing major new oil supply, for example from the IEA, investment-bank marginal-cost studies (Bernstein, Goldman Sachs) or industry analysts. Because of 'about' and the stated hedge, a central estimate of roughly $65–85/bbl is consistent. True: the credible 2010–2011 estimates centre within about $70–80/bbl, or overlap that range substantially. Mostly true: the estimates centre slightly outside it (within about $10 of either end). Mixed: credible sources diverge widely, with roughly half supporting the range. Mostly false: most estimates fall clearly outside the range, but some sources support it. False: the credible estimates are far from the range (for example, below $50 or above $100).
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Meld. St. 28 (2010–2011) Norwegian Government (Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, white paper to the Storting) · 24 June 2011
“The cost level, as illustrated in Figure 3.9, indicates that an oil price of 60–80 USD per barrel is necessary in many areas in order to ensure that is it profitable to utilise the resource base.”
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E2 DECC report UK Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) · June 2011
“set by the marginal cost of production at $60-90 per barrel.”
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E3 The Oil Drum | IEA Oil Forecast Unrealistically High; Misses Diminishing Returns The Oil Drum (blog post by Gail the Actuary) · 16 November 2012
“the marginal cost of oil production was $92 barrel in 2011 for non-OPEC, non Former Soviet Union oil producers at the”
Reasoning
The Norwegian government's 2011 white paper said an oil price of $60–80 a barrel was needed in many areas for developing the resource base to be profitable (E1). A June 2011 UK DECC report refers to a price set by the marginal cost of production at $60–90 a barrel (E2). Both ranges overlap substantially with the $70–80 estimate, which meets the criteria for true. A later blog post cites a higher marginal cost of $92 a barrel in 2011 for non-OPEC producers outside the former Soviet Union (E3), but it was published in 2012 and is a single source set against two 2011 government documents.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel.” (said April 2011). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_a714f406fa73, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a714f406fa73
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.