ClaimsNassim Taleb

“In the 1920s, the German mark went from three marks to a dollar to three trillion to a dollar in no time.”

Nassim Taleb, author, interview answer 12 January 2009 Taking Improbable Events Seriously: An Interview with the Author of 'The Black Swan' (CBS News) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

In the 1920s the German mark went from three marks to the dollar to three trillion marks to the dollar in a very short time.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged against historical exchange-rate data for the German paper mark against the US dollar. True: within the 1920s, the rate moved from roughly 3 marks per dollar (single digits) to roughly 3–4 trillion marks per dollar within a few years at most. Mostly true: the hyperinflation reached about 4.2 trillion marks per dollar (in late 1923) in a short period, but the starting rate of about 3 is slightly off, or was from just before the 1920s (for example 1914 or 1919, rather than the 1920s proper). Mixed: the order of magnitude of the end point is correct, but the starting figure is substantially wrong or the timescale is significantly longer than 'no time'. Mostly false: there was hyperinflation, but the end figure is wrong by orders of magnitude. False: no movement of this kind occurred.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Papiermark - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “Between 1914 and the end of 1923 the Papiermark's rate of exchange against the U.S. dollar plummeted from 4.2ℳ︁ = US$1 to 4.2-trillionℳ︁ = US$1.”
  2. E2 Measuring Worth MeasuringWorth (Lawrence H. Officer, exchange-rate dataset)

    “| 1920 | 57.1100 Mark |”
  3. E3 Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “The German currency was relatively stable at about 90 marks per dollar during the first half of 1921.”
  4. E4 Cautionary tale from prophet of the unlikely Chicago Tribune · 14 January 2008

    “Taleb noted that during Germany’s economic crisis in the 1920s, the mark went from three per each American dollar to more than 4.2 trillion per dollar”

Reasoning

E1 shows the Papiermark fell from 4.2 marks per dollar in 1914 to 4.2 trillion per dollar by the end of 1923. That supports the claim's order of magnitude for the end point (4.2 trillion rather than three trillion) and a single-digit starting rate, though it was 4.2 rather than 3 and dates from 1914 [E1]. Within the 1920s proper, though, the rate was already about 57 marks per dollar in 1920 (E2) and about 90 in the first half of 1921 (E3). So the single-digit starting rate comes from 1914, before the decade, which matches the criteria's "mostly true" case.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “In the 1920s the German mark went from three marks to the dollar to three trillion marks to the dollar in a very short time.” (said 12 January 2009). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a69e57b729cd, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a69e57b729cd

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nassim Taleb, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nassim Taleb

  1. Mixed Factual 25 September 2025
    “My point was that bike lanes contribute to IMPROVEMENT in well-being and happiness WITHOUT generating economic growth.”

    Taleb's point was that bike lanes improve well-being and happiness without generating economic growth.

  2. Resolved true Factual 22 September 2025
    “The entire article misses the point that Spitz has been bullish past 3 years.”

    Spitz has been bullish on markets for the past 3 years.

  3. Mixed Factual 2023
    “It is worth noting that binary options on financial”

    Binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value and are not considered an investment in the U.S. and the European Union.

  4. Mostly true Factual 2023
    “they are banned by most corresponding regulators, as they are”

    Binary options are banned by most corresponding regulators in the U.S. and the European Union because they are considered gambling devices.

  5. Mostly false Factual November 2021
    “We know that economic forecasts work no better than astrology”

    Economic forecasts work no better than astrology.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.