ClaimsØrsted

“Should the divestment materialise in 2018, EBITDA including new partnerships is expected to be higher than the DKK 22.5 billion achieved in 2017.”

Ørsted February 2018 Annual report 2017 - Strong results support Ørsted's green transformation (Ørsted) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

If the Hornsea 1 divestment happens in 2018, Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA including new partnerships to exceed DKK 22.5 billion.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

This is a conditional prediction. If the Hornsea 1 divestment did not happen (was not signed or recognised) in 2018, the prediction cannot be resolved. If it did happen in 2018: True: Ørsted's reported 2018 EBITDA including new partnerships (business performance) exceeds DKK 22.5 billion. Mostly true: it is above DKK 22.5 billion, but only because of an immaterial definitional difference in how 'including new partnerships' is measured. Mostly false: it is equal to DKK 22.5 billion or below it by no more than DKK 1 billion. False: it is more than DKK 1 billion below DKK 22.5 billion.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 [PDF] Interim financial report - First nine months 2018 - Ørsted Ørsted · 1 November 2018 Own record

    “Our full-year EBITDA for 2018, including the profit from the Hornsea 1 partnership, is expected to be significantly higher than the 2017 EBITDA level of DKK 22.5 billion.”

Reasoning

E2, Ørsted's own 9M 2018 interim report, says the Hornsea 1 farm-down had been signed in 2018, which suggests the condition was met. It also repeats guidance that full-year 2018 EBITDA would be significantly higher than DKK 22.5 billion. That is the subject restating its own forecast, not a reported result. No evidence shows the actual 2018 EBITDA figure, so the outcome cannot be determined under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Ørsted, “If the Hornsea 1 divestment happens in 2018, Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA including new partnerships to exceed DKK 22.5 billion.” (said February 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a570c1288f40, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a570c1288f40

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ørsted, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Ørsted

  1. Resolved false Prediction February 2018
    “Gross investments for 2018 are expected to amount to DKK 16-18 billion, reflecting a high level of activity related to our offshore wind farm projects, the biomass conversion of Asnæs Power Station…”

    Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation.

  2. Resolved false Prediction February 2018
    “EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements is expected to be DKK 12-13 billion in 2018 compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.”

    Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.

  3. Resolved true Prediction February 2018
    “We still expect a 50% farm-down of Hornsea 1, either in H2 2018 or in 2019.”

    Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 2017
    “The plant is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017.”

    DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 2017
    “With capacity of 1.2GW, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and our biggest investment ever.”

    With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.