Dalio said he thought a Biden administration's policies would look more like the Roosevelt years, probably with larger deficits, larger spending and stimulation, and more monetization.

Judge over the Biden administration, January 2021 to January 2025. The claim's elements are: (a) large deficits; (b) large government spending and stimulus programs, comparable in ambition to the New Deal; (c) monetization, i.e. Federal Reserve purchases of government debt financing a substantial part of the deficits. TRUE: all three hold, e.g. deficits far above pre-2020 norms, major spending and stimulus laws, and the Fed buying a large share of new Treasury issuance during the term. MOSTLY TRUE: all three hold, but one held only for part of the term (e.g. monetization ended when the Fed began quantitative tightening in 2022). MIXED: two of the three elements clearly hold, or each held only weakly or briefly. MOSTLY FALSE: only one element holds. FALSE: the administration ran fiscal policy of conventional size with no notable stimulus and no Fed monetization.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Recent Economic and Financial Developments Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 27 February 2025

   “In fiscal 2024, the budget deficit was 6.4 percent of GDP—notably larger than in the years before the pandemic—as noninterest outlays continued to outpace receipts and as the cost of debt service increased as a result of higher interest rates and a higher level of debt.”

2. E2 Recent Economic and Financial Developments Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 27 February 2025

   “After surging to about 15 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2020, the federal budget deficit—the difference between federal expenditures and receipts—declined through fiscal 2022 as the imprint of the pandemic faded, but it has been fairly flat since then (figure 30).”

3. E3 Recent Economic and Financial Developments Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 27 February 2025

   “All told, the contribution of discretionary changes in federal fiscal policy was a modest boost to real GDP growth in 2024.”

4. E4 Recent Economic and Financial Developments Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Monetary Policy Report) · 27 February 2025

   “In fiscal 2024, the budget deficit was 6.4 percent of GDP—notably larger than in the years before the pandemic—as noninterest outlays continued to outpace receipts and as the cost of debt service increased as a result of higher interest rates and a higher level of debt.”

5. E5 Recent Economic and Financial Developments Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Monetary Policy Report) · 27 February 2025

   “After surging to about 15 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2020, the federal budget deficit—the difference between federal expenditures and receipts—declined through fiscal 2022 as the imprint of the pandemic faded, but it has been fairly flat since then”

6. E6 Recent Economic and Financial Developments Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Monetary Policy Report) · 27 February 2025

   “All told, the contribution of discretionary changes in federal fiscal policy was a modest boost to real GDP growth in 2024.”

7. E7 Budget | Congressional Budget Office Congressional Budget Office · 20 March 2025

   “The federal deficit in 2024 was $1.8 trillion, equal to 6.4 percent of gross domestic product.”

8. E8 FACT SHEET: The Impact of the American Rescue Plan after One Year U.S. Department of the Treasury · 9 March 2022

   “The Department of the Treasury is proud to administer over $1 trillion in programs and tax credits under the American Rescue Plan”

9. E9 The Fed's Balance Sheet and Quantitative Tightening Congressional Research Service · 3 April 2025

   “In November 2021, responding to high inflation, the Fed announced that it would taper off its asset purchases (i.e., purchase fewer assets per month). In March 2022, it ended asset purchases, at which point the balance sheet had more than doubled from its pre-pandemic size.”

10. E10 Statement to the House Committee on Financial Services Manhattan Institute for Policy Research (Allison Schrager, written testimony) · 14 January 2025

    “That share peaked at around 20% during the pandemic and, even after years of so-called normalization, remains about 12%1.”

The evidence shows deficits well above pre-pandemic levels (E1, E7) and over $1 trillion in American Rescue Plan programs (E8), and that the Fed bought assets until March 2022 (E9). It does not show that Fed purchases of government debt financed a substantial part of the deficits (E10's share is unspecified), and it does not compare the stimulus with the New Deal, so the criteria for the monetization and stimulus elements are not settled.