Extreme bubble pricing in stocks has been confined to the US; other equity markets range from fair price to moderate overpricing.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The test is valuation conditions as of January 2023. The claim has two parts: (a) extreme bubble pricing (valuations at historically extreme levels, around 2 standard deviations above trend or near record CAPE) existed only in the US equity market; and (b) other equity markets ranged from fair value to moderately overpriced. TRUE if standard valuation measures for January 2023 (CAPE, forward P/E against history, GMO forecasts) show the US alone at extreme levels and other major markets (developed ex-US, Japan, emerging markets) near fair value or moderately above it. MOSTLY TRUE if the US alone was extreme but some non-US markets were actually below fair value (cheap) rather than fair to moderately overpriced. MIXED if the US was elevated but no longer extreme, while other markets were near fair value. MOSTLY FALSE if one or more other major markets were also at extreme valuations, or if the US was only moderately overvalued, so the US-only framing is a distortion. FALSE if the US was not overvalued relative to history, or if extreme valuations were widespread across global markets.
Set before the research began.
Reasoning
No evidence with a verified quote was found apart from the claim's own source, so the claim was not judged.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Extreme bubble pricing in stocks has been confined to the US; other equity markets range from fair price to moderate overpricing.” (said January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a06aaf50b488, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a06aaf50b488
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Mostly false
“the lowest rates in the history of man,”
Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.
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Mostly true
“31 years later, the land is not back, and stocks are not back.”
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Mostly true
“one of the two or three lowest relative points in history”
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Mostly true
“Now we have, since ChatGPT and October and November last year, we have a new little flurry of interest that is very concentrated.”
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Mixed
“in 1974 the market did turn up, after a horrific 62% real decline in two years, exactly”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.