ClaimsRay Dalio

“I think we are entering an environment that over the next three years, you will see more currency wars”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewee 16 August 2019 CNBC Transcript: Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates - Part I (CNBC)

Prediction Economics and markets

Over the next three years from August 2019 there will be more currency wars.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged over August 16, 2019 to August 2022, compared with the previous three years (August 2016 to August 2019). True: clearly more episodes of competitive currency actions or conflict, such as deliberate devaluations or interventions to weaken currencies, official currency-manipulator designations or accusations, or retaliatory currency measures among major economies. Mostly true: somewhat more such episodes, or a similar number that were more intense. Mixed: about the same level as the prior period. Mostly false: currency conflict was somewhat lower. False: currency conflict clearly eased (for example, designations withdrawn and no new competitive-devaluation episodes among major economies).

Set before the research began.

Evidence (7)

  1. E1 China no longer currency manipulator: US Deutsche Welle (DW) · 13 January 2020

    “The Trump administration branded China a currency manipulator in August, accusing Beijing of devaluing its currency to make exports more competitive.”

  2. E2 China no longer currency manipulator: US Deutsche Welle (DW) · 13 January 2020

    “The United States has dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator, the US Treasury Department announced.”

  3. E3 China no longer currency manipulator: US Deutsche Welle (DW) · 13 January 2020

    “China remains one of 10 countries the US Treasury says need to be on a watchlist, meaning that Beijing's currency practices will continue to be closely monitored.”

  4. E4 Treasury Releases Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States U.S. Department of the Treasury · 16 December 2020

    “Treasury also determined that, under the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988 (the 1988 Act), both Vietnam and Switzerland are currency manipulators”

  5. E5 Treasury Releases Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States U.S. Department of the Treasury · 16 December 2020

    “No other major U.S. trading partner met the relevant 1988 or 2015 legislative criteria for currency manipulation or enhanced analysis during the relevant period.”

  6. E6 Treasury’s FX report preview: Taiwan and Thailand dangerously in “manipulators” zone ING Think · 14 April 2021

    “In the December 2020 report, Switzerland and Vietnam were labelled as currency manipulators after they met all three criteria in the four quarters to June 2020.”

  7. E7 Currency Manipulation and Countervailing Duties Congressional Research Service · 24 June 2019

    “The Department of the Treasury since President Trump took office has not formally found any country to be manipulating its currency in its semiannual report to Congress.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows no formal US manipulator designations up to June 2019 [E7], China designated in August 2019 on an unstated date and dropped in January 2020 [E1][E2], and Vietnam and Switzerland designated in December 2020 [E4]. It does not show whether the later period had about the same level of currency conflict as the earlier one, and it does not cover retaliatory measures or competitive devaluations among major economies.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “Over the next three years from August 2019 there will be more currency wars.” (said 16 August 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_942892095f12, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_942892095f12

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Ray Dalio

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  2. Mostly true Prediction 25 October 2020
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    There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think you will see greater interest rate cuts as you start to see the world economy starting to slow down.”

    Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “In an evolutionary way, over the next one, two and three years, there will be a turn for the worse, yes.”

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  5. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
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    Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election.

All of them

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