ClaimsRay Dalio

“for various reasons related to the size of the debt, the next recession is going to come sooner.”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewed by Barron's June 2010 Barron's interview with Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates (Benzinga) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

The 'normal roughly five-year interval' is measured from the end of the previous US recession (NBER trough, June 2009). True: the next NBER-dated recession began (peak) before about June 2014. Mostly false: it began between June 2014 and mid-2015, which is roughly the normal interval and not clearly sooner. False: it began after mid-2015, meaning the expansion lasted longer than normal.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement June 8, 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) · 8 June 2020

    “The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession.”

  2. E2 Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement June 8, 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) · 8 June 2020

    “The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of US business cycles dating back to 1854.”

Reasoning

NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee found that the expansion that began in June 2009 ran without interruption until a peak in February 2020 (E1). It lasted 128 months, the longest on record (E2). So no NBER-dated recession began before June 2014. The next one began well after mid-2015, which the criteria classify as false.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt.” (said June 2010). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_8fcb1c7421b1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8fcb1c7421b1

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Dalio, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Ray Dalio

  1. Mostly true Prediction 10 June 2025
    “Yeah, we're going to have about a 7% deficit as a percentage of GDP.”

    If current congressional plans go forward, the US federal deficit will be about 7% of GDP.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 25 October 2020
    “Over the next five years, you’re going to see a lot of decoupling.”

    There will be a lot of US-China decoupling over the five years following October 2020.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think you will see greater interest rate cuts as you start to see the world economy starting to slow down.”

    Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “In an evolutionary way, over the next one, two and three years, there will be a turn for the worse, yes.”

    Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 16 August 2019
    “I think that in the next two years, let's say prior to the next election, there's probably a 40 percent chance of a recession.”

    Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.