ClaimsNassim Taleb

“In ’83 we paid the price. In ’91-’92 we paid the price.”

Nassim Taleb, interviewee 2009 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Time interview) (Time)

Factual Economics and markets

The public bore the cost of banking crises in 1983 and in 1991-1992.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2009. The claim is that the public (taxpayers/government or depositors at large) bore the cost of banking crises around 1983 and around 1991–1992 (in context, US banking: the LDC debt crisis/Continental Illinois era and the savings-and-loan/commercial bank crisis). True: historical sources show public money or government support (bailouts, FDIC/FSLIC/RTC resolution costs funded by taxpayers, regulatory forbearance with public cost) for banking crises in both periods. Mostly true: public costs are documented for both, with the dates off by a year or so (e.g. 1982 or 1984 rather than '83). Mixed: public cost is clearly documented for only one of the two episodes. Mostly false: banking crises occurred in both periods, but the costs fell mainly on private parties and public cost was minor. False: there were no such crises, or no public cost in either period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Ex ante risk and ex post collapse of S&Ls in the 1980s Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Economic Perspectives, Vol. 16, No. 4) · July 1992

    “Since 1980, the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) and its successor, the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC), have recognized losses of over $125 billion.”
  2. E2 Ex ante risk and ex post collapse of S&Ls in the 1980s Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Economic Perspectives, Vol. 16, No. 4) · July 1992

    “Between August 1989 and February 1992 the RTC resolved another 602 insolvent thrifts with assets of $186.1 billion.”
  3. E3 History of the Eighties - Chapter 7 - FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

    “One of the most notable features on the landscape of the banking crises of the 1980s was the crisis involving Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Company (CINB) in May 1984, which was and still is the largest bank resolution in U.S. history.”
  4. E4 History of the Eighties - Chapter 7 - FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

    “Bank analyst David Cates, however, noted at the time that the fact that the FDIC shares would have voting rights only after they were sold indicated the FDIC wanted to return the bank to the private sector as soon as possible, so nationalization was not the most accurate term to describe the assistance package”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 (Chicago Fed, 1992) show government resolution costs for the savings-and-loan crisis. FSLIC and its successor, the RTC, recognized losses of over $125 billion since 1980, and the RTC resolved 602 insolvent thrifts with $186.1 billion in assets between August 1989 and February 1992, which covers the 1991–92 period. For the earlier episode, E3 and E4 (FDIC) document an FDIC assistance package for Continental Illinois in May 1984, which was then the largest bank resolution in US history. That date is a year after the '83 in the claim; the excerpts describe an FDIC resolution and assistance package [E3][E4] but do not state its public cost.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “The public bore the cost of banking crises in 1983 and in 1991-1992.” (said 2009). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_8aa0d7b25d70, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8aa0d7b25d70

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.