Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016.

This is a 90% forecast that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than in January 2016. True: credible territorial estimates (for example IHS Conflict Monitor or similar trackers) show ISIS-held territory in Iraq and Syria at the end of December 2016 was smaller than in January 2016. False: the estimates show territory the same or larger at the end of 2016. Mixed only if the leading estimates conflict on direction.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 As Trump takes over, a diminished ISIS awaits | CNN CNN · 18 January 2017

   “Global intelligence and analysis firm IHS Conflict Monitor, which uses open-source intelligence including social media and on-the-ground sources, estimates that ISIS lost 17,600 square kilometers (6,800 square miles) of the land it held in Iraq and Syria over 2016.”

2. E2 As Trump takes over, a diminished ISIS awaits | CNN CNN · 18 January 2017

   “ISIS’ caliphate in the two countries shrunk by 23% over the course of the year, according to a survey and map released by IHS.”

3. E3 Islamic State group lost quarter of its territory in 2016: Monitor Middle East Eye · 19 January 2017

   “Analysts from the defence monitor IHS Markit reported that the group's territory was now reduced to 60,400 square kilometres after losing 18,000 square kilometres.”

4. E4 The Jihadi Threat 2: Whither the Islamic State? Wilson Center · 8 December 2016

   “By the end of 2016, ISIS had lost 43 percent of its total caliphate—57 percent of its territory in Iraq and 27 percent of its territory in Syria, according to the Pentagon.”

CNN reports an IHS Conflict Monitor estimate that ISIS lost 17,600 square kilometres of the land it held in Iraq and Syria over 2016 [E1], and that its caliphate in the two countries shrank by 23% over the year [E2]. Middle East Eye, also citing IHS Markit, reports that the group's territory fell to 60,400 square kilometres after it lost 18,000 square kilometres in 2016 [E3]. These independent reports agree that ISIS held less territory at the end of 2016 than at the start, which meets the criteria for true. I left out E4 because its Pentagon percentages appear to measure losses from ISIS's peak territory, not from January 2016.