ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“in my view, even in a mild recession, the stock market has to fall by 30%, so another 10% down, let alone if it’s a more severe recession.”

Nouriel Roubini, economist, interviewee 6 November 2022 Nouriel Roubini interview: recession, inflation, Great Depression (Fortune) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Even in a mild recession the US stock market has to fall 30% from its peak, meaning about another 10% down from the November 2022 level.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge through the end of 2023. The claim implies the S&P 500 would fall about 30% from its January 2022 record close, about another 10% below its early-November 2022 level, at least in a mild recession. TRUE: the S&P 500 closed at least 30% below its January 2022 record close by the horizon, whether or not a recession occurred. MOSTLY TRUE: the peak-to-trough closing decline reached 27–30%. MOSTLY FALSE: the index fell somewhat further than its early-November 2022 level, but the drawdown stayed below 27%. FALSE: the index never closed meaningfully (more than about 3%) below its early-November 2022 level. FALSE also applies if a US recession, as dated by the NBER or shown by two negative real GDP quarters, occurred while the drawdown stayed under 27%.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 The 2022 bear market: inflation, Fed hikes and falling bonds | Finabase Finabase · 30 October 2026

    “The S&P 500 dropped 25.4% from its record close on January 3, 2022 to its low on October 12, 2022, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq lost more than a third.”

  2. E2 The 2022 bear market: inflation, Fed hikes and falling bonds | Finabase Finabase · 30 October 2026

    “The S&P 500 fell about 19% in calendar 2022 on a price basis.”

  3. E3 The 2022 bear market: inflation, Fed hikes and falling bonds | Finabase Finabase · 30 October 2026

    “No recession was declared for 2022. Unemployment stayed at or below 4% through the year, which is part of why profits, and eventually stock prices, held up.”

  4. E4 The 2022 bear market: inflation, Fed hikes and falling bonds | Finabase Finabase · 30 October 2026

    “The S&P 500 set a new closing record on January 19, 2024, about two years after the January 2022 peak.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows a 25.4% drawdown to the October 2022 low [E1], no recession declared for 2022 [E3] and a new record close in January 2024 [E4]. It gives neither the early-November 2022 level nor any 2023 closing levels, so it cannot show whether the index closed more than about 3% below its early-November 2022 level by the end of 2023.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “Even in a mild recession the US stock market has to fall 30% from its peak, meaning about another 10% down from the November 2022 level.” (said 6 November 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8526dc10f662, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8526dc10f662

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nouriel Roubini, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini

  1. Mostly false Prediction 27 October 2023
    “As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”

    US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).

  2. Mostly false Prediction 3 January 2023
    “They are talking tough [but if] faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, they’re going to wimp out.”

    Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So it’s much worse than the ‘70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”

    The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So history suggests it’s going to be near mission impossible to avoid a hard landing.”

    History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy.

  5. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “I’ve made the argument, and this is not the conventional wisdom, that the recession is not going to be short and shallow”

    The coming US recession will not be short and shallow.

All of them

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