In 10 years, the online shopping user experience will be so different it cannot now be imagined.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Prediction judged at 2011. True: by 2011 the online shopping experience had changed fundamentally from 2001 in ways that 2001 observers did not commonly foresee. Examples would be new modes of shopping in mainstream use, such as smartphone apps, tablets or e-readers, one-device instant digital delivery, or pervasive personalization and social features, making it qualitatively different rather than an incremental upgrade. Mostly true: the changes were large and widely adopted, but many were extensions of ideas already being discussed in 2001. Mixed: the experience changed substantially in some respects but stayed recognisably similar in its core (browsing a web catalogue, cart, checkout). Mostly false: the changes were mostly incremental improvements to the 2001 experience. False: online shopping in 2011 was essentially the same as in 2001.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 M-Commerce To Hit $6.7B In 2011 MediaPost · 1 December 2011
“Mobile commerce will nearly double to $6.7 billion this year -- fueled by rising smartphone adoption and growing mobile Web use, according to a new eMarketer forecast.”
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E2 Average Smartphone User Has Downloaded Three Shopping Apps NextTV · 27 May 2011
“The majority of consumers (72%) indicated they already use their mobile phones to receive coupons, product deals and price alerts.”
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E3 Amazon.com Now Selling More Kindle Books Than Print Books Amazon.com, Inc. (press release) · 19 May 2011 Own record
“Today, less than four years after introducing Kindle books, Amazon.com customers are now purchasing more Kindle books than all print books - hardcover and paperback - combined.”
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E4 Let's go 'social shopping' BBC News · 7 July 2011
“TV didn't transform retail and neither will Facebook. At the end of the day no-one buys something as the result of a link.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows new modes of shopping in use by 2011, including mobile commerce (E1, E2) and Kindle book sales passing print book sales (E3), alongside quoted doubt about social shopping (E4). No evidence item shows what observers in 2001 foresaw or discussed, and the criteria need that to separate true from mostly true.
Cite this claim
Jeff Bezos, “In 10 years, the online shopping user experience will be so different it cannot now be imagined.” (said 2 April 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8337368abc79, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8337368abc79
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeff Bezos
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Mostly true
“There’ll also be more community-type things, where customers help other customers make their purchase decisions.”
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Resolved true
“Some e-commerce businesses will go in 2001, but we’re in this for the long run.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.