ClaimsJeff Bezos

“Some e-commerce businesses will go in 2001, but we’re in this for the long run.”

Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO, interviewed 2 April 2001 TBT 2001: Jeff Bezos Shares His Cyberspace Odyssey With TWICE (TWICE) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Some e-commerce businesses will fail in 2001.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Prediction for calendar year 2001. True: during 2001 more than one e-commerce business shut down, went bankrupt, or was liquidated. Several such failures would be enough. Mostly true: e-commerce failures happened in 2001, but they are documented only as acquisitions or wind-downs that blur the line with outright failure. Mostly false: only one e-commerce business failed in 2001, or the documented failures happened mostly in late 2000 or in 2002 rather than in 2001. False: dated accounts show no e-commerce businesses failed during 2001.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Web closures more than double in 2001 - UPI.com United Press International (UPI) · 27 December 2001

    “At least 537 Internet companies shut down or declared bankruptcy in 2001, more than twice as many as in 2000, according to a report released Thursday.”

  2. E2 E-Commerce 2001 in Review: Let's Make a Deal E-Commerce Times · 28 December 2001

    “In July, online grocer Webvan closed up shop, after burning through US$800 million in an aggressive expansion campaign.”

  3. E3 eToys files for bankruptcy BBC News · 27 February 2001

    “The online toy store eToys plans to file for bankruptcy protection after its run as one of the internet's prominent retail pioneers came to an end on Monday.”

  4. E4 Egghead files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy - ZDNET ZDNET · 15 August 2001

    “Egghead spokeswoman Joanne Hartzell said the company plans to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy later on Wednesday, and that it laid off about 180 employees as part of the move.”

Reasoning

Several independent, dated reports show e-commerce businesses failing during 2001. Online grocer Webvan shut down in July (E2). Online toy retailer eToys announced it would file for bankruptcy protection in February (E3). Egghead said in August that it planned to file for Chapter 11 (E4). A broader UPI report counts at least 537 Internet companies that shut down or went bankrupt in 2001 (E1). Together these meet the "true" criterion of more than one e-commerce failure in 2001.

Cite this claim

Jeff Bezos, “Some e-commerce businesses will fail in 2001.” (said 2 April 2001). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_fdb2b72cf22a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fdb2b72cf22a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Jeff Bezos

  1. Mostly true Prediction 2 April 2001
    “There’ll also be more community-type things, where customers help other customers make their purchase decisions.”

    Amazon's site will have more community features where customers help other customers make purchase decisions.

All of them

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