ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“Each and every one agreed that if the P/E on the S&P were to go back to 17 times earnings from its level then of 28 to 35 times, it would guarantee a major bear market.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author April 2012 My Sister's Pension Assets and Agency Problems (GMO)

Factual Economics and markets

In his 1998-1999 survey of about 1100 equity professionals, every respondent agreed that S&P P/E falling from 28-35 to 17 would guarantee a major bear market.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Results of Grantham's own informal survey are known only from his own records.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “In his 1998-1999 survey of about 1100 equity professionals, every respondent agreed that S&P P/E falling from 28-35 to 17 would guarantee a major bear market.” (said April 2012). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_803b9266d2cf, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_803b9266d2cf

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  5. Mixed Factual January 2023
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All of them

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