Following Roodman, Scott's original cost-benefit analysis of prison gave two conclusions: one counting prisoners' own suffering and one not.

Judged as of 2024-12-10. True: Scott's earlier ACX cost-benefit analysis of prison/incarceration, drawing on David Roodman's work, gave two separate bottom-line conclusions: one that counted the suffering of prisoners and one that left it out. Mostly true: there were two conclusions along these lines, but a minor detail differs (for example, Roodman did not set up the split in exactly this way). Mixed: the post had one main conclusion, and prisoner suffering appears only as a side caveat. Mostly false: the post gave a single conclusion, with only a passing mention of prisoner suffering. False: the post gave no such split.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Prison And Crime: Much More Than You Wanted To Know Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 27 November 2024 Own record

   “The end result: if you don’t count the costs to the prisoner themselves, and you don’t use the more modern number, and you’re not in an expensive state like California, then the marginal incarceration-year saves society about $13,000.”

2. E2 Prison And Crime: Much More Than You Wanted To Know Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 27 November 2024 Own record

   “If you do count those things, or you’re in an expensive state, the costs far outweigh the benefits.”

3. E3 Prison And Crime: Much More Than You Wanted To Know Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 27 November 2024 Own record

   “Roodman also adds in the costs to the prisoner. He uses some surveys to value the disutility of the suffering caused by a year in prison at $50,000; additionally, the prisoner loses about $16,000 in earning potential.”

4. E4 David Roodman - The Impacts of Incarceration on Crime SSRN (Roodman, Open Philanthropy) · 25 September 2017

   “A cost-benefit analysis finds that even under a devil’s advocate reading of this evidence, in which incarceration does reduce crime in U.S., it is unlikely to increase aggregate welfare.”

Scott's November 2024 prison post is the record in question. It gives one bottom line that leaves out costs to prisoners: the marginal incarceration-year saves society about $13,000 (E1). It gives a second bottom line that counts them: costs far outweigh benefits (E2). The post says the prisoner-cost figures (a $50,000 suffering value plus lost earnings) come from Roodman (E3), which matches "following Roodman." The split also depends on other conditions, such as which crime estimate is used and which state, but that does not change the fact that the post gives two conclusions along the line the claim describes.