ClaimsScott Alexander

“I do think solitary might be more expensive”

Scott Alexander, blog author 10 December 2024 Highlights From The Comments On Prison (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

Solitary confinement for prisoners might be more expensive than standard imprisonment.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

This is a hedged claim that solitary confinement 'might be' more expensive per prisoner than standard imprisonment, judged as of 2024-12-10. True: credible cost data (government budgets, audits or peer-reviewed studies) show solitary or supermax confinement generally costs more per prisoner than general-population custody. Mostly true: the evidence shows it is usually more expensive but with notable exceptions. Mixed: the evidence is truly split or inconclusive. Mostly false: most evidence shows the costs are similar. False: the evidence shows solitary is generally cheaper or no more expensive.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Trapped in the Hole: America's Solitary Problem | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series PBS FRONTLINE · 14 June 2013

    “The Bureau of Prisons doesn’t regularly calculate the cost of housing inmates in solitary, but it did estimate that the daily cost per inmate for isolation at one sample facility was $119.71, compared to $69.41 for the general population.”
  2. E2 Trapped in the Hole: America's Solitary Problem | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series PBS FRONTLINE · 14 June 2013

    “The GAO report found that housing inmates in isolation costs significantly more than confinement for the general population, largely because of the extra staffing required.”
  3. E3 Solitary confinement: A primer on its use and consequences in the U.S. Journalist's Resource (Harvard Kennedy School Shorenstein Center) · 6 June 2023

    “Research shows that holding a prisoner in long-term solitary confinement is more expensive than keeping them in the general prison population.”
  4. E4 Improper Housing of Maximum Custody Inmates at California State Prison Reception Centers (Special Review) California Office of the Inspector General · March 2006

    “and could save approximately $1,000 per month for every inmate not placed in administrative segregation unnecessarily.”

Reasoning

PBS FRONTLINE reports a GAO finding that holding inmates in isolation costs significantly more than general-population confinement, mostly because of extra staffing. At one sample federal facility the daily cost was $119.71 per isolated inmate against $69.41 for the general population (E1, E2). A Harvard Shorenstein Center research primer says research shows long-term solitary costs more than general-population custody (E3). A California Inspector General review estimates savings of about $1,000 per month for each inmate kept out of administrative segregation (E4). The three independent sources point the same way: the PBS FRONTLINE article [E1][E2] and the Journalist's Resource primer [E3] report that solitary costs more than general-population custody, and the California Inspector General's estimate of savings from avoiding unnecessary administrative segregation [E4] fits with this, though it is only an indirect comparison. Together they support the hedged claim that solitary might be more expensive.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Solitary confinement for prisoners might be more expensive than standard imprisonment.” (said 10 December 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_7c69010b6925, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7c69010b6925

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Scott Alexander

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  2. Mostly true Factual 10 December 2024
    “Since most of the benefits of prison come from incapacitation rather than deterrence, we should expect this to have limited effect”

    Most of the benefits of prison come from incapacitation rather than deterrence.

  3. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
    “I (following Roodman) gave two conclusions in my cost-benefit analysis - one that counted the suffering by prisoners themselves, and one that didn’t.”

    Following Roodman, Scott's original cost-benefit analysis of prison gave two conclusions: one counting prisoners' own suffering and one not.

  4. Mostly true Factual 30 September 2014
    “I started this essay by pointing out that, despite what geographical and cultural distance would suggest, the Nazis’ outgroup was not the vastly different Japanese, but the almost-identical German…”

    The Nazis' outgroup was the almost-identical German Jews rather than the culturally distant Japanese.

  5. Mostly true Factual 30 September 2014
    “People have been studying “belief congruence theory” – the idea that differences in beliefs are more important than demographic factors in forming in-groups and outgroups – for decades.”

    Researchers have studied belief congruence theory, that belief differences matter more than demographics in forming in-groups and outgroups, for decades.

All of them

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