ClaimsNate Silver

“I don't think sixty in the Senate, which would at least pass a filibuster, is so hard.”

Nate Silver, podcast co-host 8 April 2025 Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs (Risky Business) (iHeart)

Prediction AI policy and governance Political

Silver said he did not think getting 60 votes in the Senate on measures against Trump's tariffs, enough to overcome a filibuster, would be so hard.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Judge by the end of the 119th Congress (3 January 2027). True: at least one Senate measure against Trump's tariffs (a resolution terminating a tariff emergency, or a bill restricting tariff authority) received 60 or more votes on passage or cloture. Mostly true: a measure got 58-59 votes. Mostly false: tariff measures passed or nearly passed with simple majorities but fell clearly short of 60. False: tariff-limiting measures repeatedly failed to win even a majority, or never received anywhere near 60.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 A joint resolution terminating the national emergency declared to impose duties on articles imported from Canada. Congressional Research Service / Library of Congress (via govinfo.gov bulk data) · 5 December 2025

    “Passed Senate without amendment by Yea-Nay Vote. 50 - 46. Record Vote Number: 598.”

  2. E2 Economy Lawsuit Today: IEEPA Ruling and the $175B Fight LegalClarity · 18 June 2026

    “It failed on a 49-49 Senate vote, and a motion to table reconsideration passed 50-49.”

  3. E3 Economy Lawsuit Today: IEEPA Ruling and the $175B Fight LegalClarity · 18 June 2026

    “The bill was referred to the Senate Finance Committee and has not received a hearing or floor vote.”

Reasoning

E1 shows a Senate resolution terminating the Canada tariff emergency passed 50-46, and E2 reports another tariff measure failed 49-49. E3 notes a tariff-authority bill had no hearing or floor vote as of June 2026. None of these reach 60 votes, but the 119th Congress runs until 3 January 2027. A tariff measure could still reach 60 votes before then, so the outcome is not yet settled.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Silver said he did not think getting 60 votes in the Senate on measures against Trump's tariffs, enough to overcome a filibuster, would be so hard.” (said 8 April 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_77c6d9008ac8, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_77c6d9008ac8

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Resolved true Prediction 30 June 2022
    “If the GOP takes over the House next year one thing you can be pretty sure of is COVID panels/investigations.”

    If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations.

  2. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 13 August 2024
    “I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”

    Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.

  4. Mixed Prediction 8 September 2023
    “Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and it will be nine months to a year before they do.”

    Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

    Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

All of them

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