The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop.

Two parts, judged at the end of 2007. Part (a): a US national recession began in early 2007, meaning a business-cycle peak dated by the NBER in roughly the first half of 2007, or two consecutive negative real GDP quarters in the first half of 2007 in BEA data. Part (b): Wall Street profits and bonuses dropped sharply in 2007 compared with 2006. That means a clear fall (roughly 20% or more) in securities-industry profits and in the average or total bonus pool, as reported by the New York State Comptroller or similar industry data. A recession that began later (for example a peak dated in late 2007) does not satisfy 'early 2007'. TRUE: both parts hold. MOSTLY TRUE: both hold, but one is slightly weaker than stated (for example profits fell sharply but bonuses fell only modestly). MIXED: exactly one of (a) and (b) holds. MOSTLY FALSE: neither holds fully, but there was a related partial outcome (for example a recession starting in late 2007, or only modest falls in profits). FALSE: there was no recession in early 2007, and 2007 profits and bonuses did not fall sharply.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 DiNapoli: Wall Street Bonuses Slip From 2006 Record Office of the New York State Comptroller · 17 January 2008

   “DiNapoli’s office estimates that the bonus pool paid by the securities industry to its employees in New York City totaled $33.2 billion, 2 percent less than the record $33.9 billion in 2006.”

2. E2 Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement December 1, 2008 National Bureau of Economic Research · 1 December 2008

   “The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the US economy in December 2007.”

3. E3 Main navigation U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

   “increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

Part (a) fails. The NBER dated the business-cycle peak to December 2007, not the first half of 2007 (E3). The BEA's advance estimate also showed real GDP rising at a 1.3% annual rate in Q1 2007 (E4). Part (b) also fails: the NY State Comptroller estimated the 2007 bonus pool at $33.2 billion, only 2% below 2006's record (E1), which is far short of a roughly 20% drop. Neither part holds fully, but there were related partial outcomes: a recession whose peak came in late 2007 and a small fall in bonuses. Under the criteria, that makes the verdict mostly false.