The US housing market will have its biggest bust in decades.

Horizon: end of 2009, about three years after the prediction. True: the US housing downturn that began in 2006 was larger than any US housing downturn of at least the previous several decades (going back at least to the 1970s–1980s cycles), on the main measures: the national decline in house prices (S&P/Case-Shiller or FHFA), the falls in housing starts and home sales, and foreclosures. Mostly true: it was the largest on most of these measures but matched or was smaller than an earlier downturn on one secondary measure. Mixed: it was about as large as earlier downturns (for example the late-1980s/early-1990s cycle) but not clearly the largest. Mostly false: there was a real but ordinary housing slowdown, clearly smaller than earlier busts. False: no significant national housing decline happened by the horizon.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Home Prices Slide Further In Summer Months | FHFA Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

   “The four-quarter decline was the largest four-quarter drop in the history of the index, which extends back to 1975.”

2. E2 Home Prices Slide Further In Summer Months | FHFA Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

   “This decline was greater than the 1.4 percent decline in the prior quarter and the largest in the purchase-only index's 17-year history.”

The evidence shows only that FHFA house price indexes recorded their largest declines in their own histories, in undated releases [E1][E2]. It does not cover housing starts, home sales or foreclosures, so it cannot show the downturn was the largest on most of the measures the criteria require.