Preliminary evidence indicates a Palestinian rocket caused the October 2023 explosion at a Gaza hospital.

Judge as of 18 October 2023: what preliminary evidence about the al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion of 17 October 2023 indicated at that time. True if by 18 October the available preliminary evidence (Israeli, US intelligence or independent analyses) pointed to a misfired Palestinian rocket, and later assessments (for example by HRW or major media investigations) did not refute this. Mostly true if preliminary evidence did point that way and later analyses judged it likely but not conclusively proven. Mixed if the preliminary evidence was genuinely split. Mostly false if only one party's claims pointed that way and independent preliminary analyses did not. False if the evidence available then, or later, showed an Israeli strike caused it.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Israel military denies it hit Gaza hospital, global protests grow RNZ (originally published by Reuters) · 18 October 2023

   “Israel's military has published what it described as evidence that a misfired Palestinian rocket, rather than one of its own munitions, caused an explosion at a Gaza hospital in which hundreds of people died.”

2. E2 Gaza hospital: What video, pictures and other evidence tell us about Al-Ahli hospital blast BBC · 18 October 2023

   “So far, the findings are inconclusive. Three experts we spoke to say it is not consistent with what you would expect from a typical Israeli air strike with a large munition.”

3. E3 CNN Investigates: Forensic analysis of images and videos suggests rocket caused Gaza hospital blast, not Israeli airstrike | CNN CNN · 21 October 2023

   “Since this article was first published, CNN reviewed several more videos and determined that the projectile pictured in the footage was launched from Israel and is unlikely to be connected to the hospital explosion.”

On 18 October, Israel's military published what it called evidence of a misfired Palestinian rocket (E1), and the BBC called the findings inconclusive, although three experts said the blast did not match a typical Israeli air strike (E2). CNN's later analysis suggested a rocket caused the blast, but its added note says the projectile in the footage was launched from Israel and is unlikely to be connected to the explosion. None of the material says whether CNN's overall finding still stands after that note (E4), so the evidence does not settle whether later analyses judged a Palestinian rocket likely.