ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“We are experiencing asymmetric war already – on the cyber front – with China, Russia, and Korea.”

Nouriel Roubini, interviewee 28 October 2022 Nouriel Roubini on the Ten Megathreats Facing the World (Thought Economics) archived copy

Factual Other global risks

The West is already experiencing asymmetric cyber warfare with China, Russia and Korea.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

'Korea' is read as North Korea. True: as of 2022-10-28, Western governments or credible security firms had publicly attributed ongoing hostile cyber operations against Western targets (espionage, sabotage, ransomware or theft) to state-linked actors in each of China, Russia and North Korea. Mostly true: such attributions exist for all three but are documented for only some Western countries, or are framed as espionage rather than 'war'. Mixed: documented attributions exist for only two of the three. Mostly false: only one of the three had documented state-linked cyber operations against the West. False: none of the three had any publicly attributed state-linked cyber operations against Western targets.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Attribution of Russia’s Malicious Cyber Activity Against Ukraine - United States Department of State United States Department of State · 10 May 2022

    “Today, in support of the European Union and other partners, the United States is sharing publicly its assessment that Russia launched cyber attacks in late February against commercial satellite communications networks to disrupt Ukrainian command and control during the invasion, and those actions had spillover impacts into other European countries.”
  2. E2 State threats National Cyber Security Centre (UK) · 1 November 2022

    “Since then, China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) has emerged as a prolific and pervasive actor in cyberspace, undertaking a substantial global espionage campaign to meet political, socio-economic, and strategic objectives.”
  3. E3 State threats National Cyber Security Centre (UK) · 1 November 2022

    “While not as sophisticated as Russia, China and Iran, North Korea (DPRK) remains a capable actor in cyberspace. A key focus of North Korea’s malign cyber activity is cyber theft, using its cyber capability to bolster its poor economic situation through cyber crime.”
  4. E4 How N. Korean hackers keep the regime afloat Deutsche Welle (DW) · 2 September 2022

    “the company estimates that more than $1 billion of the total was stolen by "bad actors affiliated with North Korea, especially elite hacking units like Lazarus Group."”

Reasoning

E1 records a May 2022 US attribution of Russian cyberattacks that spilled over into other European countries. The UK NCSC's 2022 annual review attributes a substantial global espionage campaign to China's Ministry of State Security (E2). The same review describes North Korea's ongoing cyber theft (E3), and E4 reports more than $1 billion stolen by actors affiliated with North Korea. Attributions exist for all three countries, but the China activity is framed as espionage rather than war, and the evidence does not explicitly name Western targets for North Korea, which fits "mostly true" under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “The West is already experiencing asymmetric cyber warfare with China, Russia and Korea.” (said 28 October 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_9aa735cd08f0, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9aa735cd08f0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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All of them

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