China is not a declining power and has an authoritarian regime built around state capital.

The claim has two parts as of Oct 2022: (a) China is not a declining power (unlike the late Soviet Union); (b) China has an authoritarian regime built around state capitalism. Judge (a) against indicators of growth in GDP, technology and military capability and the share of world output, and (b) against the standard characterisation of China's political-economic system. True: both are supported by mainstream evidence and analysis. Mostly true: both broadly hold, but (a) is reasonably contested, for example by slowing growth or demographic decline. Mixed: one part is supported and the other is clearly contradicted. Mostly false: the evidence largely contradicts (a), showing China in clear absolute decline, while (b) holds. False: both are contradicted.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 China: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House Freedom House

   “The authorities dominate the economy through state-owned enterprises in key sectors such as banking and energy, through state ownership of land, and through political and regulatory control.”

2. E2 China: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House Freedom House

   “China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years.”

3. E3 Party-State Capitalism in China Harvard Business School Working Paper 21-065 (authors: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire, Kellee S. Tsai) · April 2021

   “this paper contends that China’s political economy has evolved from a form of state capitalism as envisioned in familiar depictions of state-directed economies to a distinctly party-driven incarnation.”

4. E4 Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2022 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) · April 2023

   “In 2022 China’s military spend ing rose for the 28th consecutive year, to reach $292 billion.”

Part (b) is well supported. Freedom House calls China an authoritarian regime (E2) and says the state dominates the economy through state-owned enterprises, state ownership of land and political control (E1). Academic work describes China's system as state capitalism that has become party-driven (E3). For part (a), the only evidence is SIPRI's report that China's military spending rose for the 28th consecutive year in 2022 (E4). That points against decline, but there is no evidence here on GDP, technology or share of world output, so part (a) is only partly shown and the verdict stops short of fully true.