ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“Bitcoin price is now below 30K. A critical level - meaning the majority of retail suckers, who entered into the market after March 2021, are in the red.”

Nouriel Roubini, on X 20 July 2021 Post by @Nouriel on X, 2021-07-20 (X)

Factual Economics and markets

On 2021-07-20 the Bitcoin price was below $30,000, putting most retail buyers who entered after March 2021 at a loss.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Two parts: (a) the Bitcoin price was below $30,000 on 2021-07-20; (b) most retail buyers who entered after March 2021 were at an unrealized loss. Part (a) is met if major exchange data show Bitcoin trading below $30,000 at some point on 2021-07-20 (UTC or US time). True: (a) holds and on-chain or exchange analysis (for example cost-basis or realized-price data for cohorts that bought from March 2021 on) shows most of those buyers' holdings below cost at that price. Mostly true: (a) holds and the data show most recent buyers at a loss, but the cohort boundary differs slightly (for example buyers from February or April). Mixed: (a) holds but evidence on (b) is inconclusive or shows only a large minority at a loss. Mostly false: (a) holds but the data show most post-March-2021 buyers were not at a loss. False: Bitcoin did not trade below $30,000 on that date.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Bitcoin price falls below $30,000 | ForkLog ForkLog · 20 July 2021

    “At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $29,700.”

  2. E2 Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $30000 as cryptocurrency market ... CNBC · 19 July 2021

    “Bitcoin fell below $30,000 for the first time since Jun. 22 on Monday dragging other digital coins lower.”

  3. E3 The Week On-chain (Week 30, 2021) Glassnode · 26 July 2021

    “Looking at the MVRV for the short-term holder (STH) cohort, we can see that they are currently holding coins at a significant unrealised loss.”

  4. E4 The Week On-chain (Week 29, 2021) Glassnode · 19 July 2021

    “The chart below shows that approximately 6.2M BTC, equivalent to 33% of the circulating supply is currently holding an unrealized loss.”

Reasoning

E1, a ForkLog report dated 2021-07-20, says BTC was trading around $29,700, so part (a) holds; E2 reports that Bitcoin fell below $30,000 on Monday, the first time since June 22. For part (b), Glassnode's on-chain analysis (E3) says the short-term-holder cohort was holding coins at a significant unrealised loss. That points to most recent buyers being below cost, but the cohort is not defined exactly as buyers from March 2021 onward, and an aggregate MVRV figure is not a direct count of buyers. E4 shows about 33% of the whole circulating supply at a loss, which covers all holders rather than the cohort the claim names.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “On 2021-07-20 the Bitcoin price was below $30,000, putting most retail buyers who entered after March 2021 at a loss.” (said 20 July 2021). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_6e35173dbfe3, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6e35173dbfe3

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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All of them

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