ClaimsWarren Buffett

“I think the odds are good, as I said last year at the annual meeting, that we'll have prosperity in any four-year period.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman and CEO, interview 27 February 2017 Full transcript of Buffett's interview with CNBC (Feb 2017) (CNBC) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

The odds are good that the US will have economic prosperity in any given four-year period.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague probabilistic generalisation: 'prosperity' is not defined, and 'any four-year period' names a length of time but no specific start or end dates to check against.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “The odds are good that the US will have economic prosperity in any given four-year period.” (said 27 February 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_66fb084f3974, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_66fb084f3974

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 27 February 2017
    “And I think they will end up going for something not as dramatic as they might even like to do because they simply don't want to spend the time and the political capital getting it done.”

    Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “we will get out of it.”

    The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “I don’t think they’ll end up being passed for no one.”

    Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2007
    “Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide.”

    Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “A decade from now, HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger.”

    HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.