As of October 2009 the size of the financial system continues to grow and shows every sign of being out of control.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of October 2009 on the verifiable part: whether the size of the financial system was still growing. Measure this by, for example, financial-sector debt or assets relative to GDP, or the financial sector's share of GDP or corporate profits, using data available for 2008–2009. 'Shows every sign of being out of control' is an opinion and cannot be verified directly; treat it as supported if measures of size were still growing and unchecked. True: data show the financial system's size still growing up to 2009. Mostly true: growth continued on most measures with minor exceptions. Mixed: the measures diverge roughly evenly. Mostly false: the financial system had stopped growing or shrunk in 2008–09 on most measures, although the long-term trend had been growth. False: data show a clear contraction of the financial system on all main measures as of 2009.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Selected Financial Market & Economic Data Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission · 13 January 2010
“The financial sector has become an increasingly large part of the economy, reaching 5.8% of GDP in the third quarter of 2009.”
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E2 Selected Financial Market & Economic Data Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission · 13 January 2010
“profits fell to a recent low of $89 billion at an annual rate in 2008Q4. Since then, financial sector profits have risen and were $305 billion at an annual rate in the latest data from 2009Q3.”
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E3 The Evolution of Financial Services in the United States Harvard Business School (Greenwood, Ialenti, Scharfstein) · 9 January 2025
“After the Global Financial Crisis, the size of the sector stabilized at approximately 7% of GDP.”
Reasoning
E1 reports the financial sector's share of GDP reaching 5.8% in 2009Q3 as part of a rising trend, and E2 reports sector profits falling to a low in 2008Q4 and then rising through 2009Q3. E3 does not describe the sector's size as of October 2009, so the evidence does not show whether the measures diverged roughly evenly as the mixed verdict requires.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “As of October 2009 the size of the financial system continues to grow and shows every sign of being out of control.” (said October 2009). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_66a43d6a1dcf, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_66a43d6a1dcf
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Mostly false
“the lowest rates in the history of man,”
Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.
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Mostly true
“31 years later, the land is not back, and stocks are not back.”
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Mostly true
“one of the two or three lowest relative points in history”
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Mostly true
“Now we have, since ChatGPT and October and November last year, we have a new little flurry of interest that is very concentrated.”
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Mixed
“in 1974 the market did turn up, after a horrific 62% real decline in two years, exactly”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.