Providing $1,000 per month to every American would cost the US about 20% of GDP.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Calculate $1,000 × 12 months × the US population in 2022 (about 330–335 million), then divide by 2022 nominal US GDP from the BEA. The claim says about 20%. True: the result is 18–22% of GDP. Mostly true: the result is 15% to under 18%, or above 22% up to 25%. Mostly false: the result is 10% to under 15%, or above 25% up to 30%. False: the result is below 10% or above 30%.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Second Estimate) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · 4 October 2023
“Current‑dollar GDP increased 9.2 percent, or $2.15 trillion, in 2022 to a level of $25.46 trillion, compared with an increase of 10.7 percent, or $2.25 trillion, in 2021 (tables 1 and 3).”
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E2 Growth in U.S. Population Shows Early Indication of Recovery Amid COVID-19 Pandemic U.S. Census Bureau · 22 December 2022
“After a historically low rate of change between 2020 and 2021, the U.S. resident population increased by 0.4%, or 1,256,003, to 333,287,557 in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 national and state population estimates”
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E3 The Hidden Costs of a Universal Basic Income Mises Institute (Mises Wire) · 10 October 2019
“So we get a total cost of $250 billion monthly and $3 trillion annually. It would amount to about 14 percent of US GDP, or 42 percent of total government spending, or 73 percent of the federal outlays.”
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E4 Five Problems with Universal Basic Income Third Way · 24 May 2018
“Almost two-thirds of the population, or 200 million people, would receive a monthly UBI check for $1,000, with a cost of approximately $2.4 trillion every year, or one-eighth of GDP.”
Reasoning
The Census Bureau puts the 2022 US resident population at 333,287,557 (E2). At $12,000 a year per person, that comes to about $4.00 trillion. The BEA reports 2022 nominal GDP as $25.46 trillion (E1), so the cost is about 15.7% of GDP. Under the criteria, that falls in the mostly-true band (15% to under 18%), not the 18–22% band needed for true.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “Providing $1,000 per month to every American would cost the US about 20% of GDP.” (said 6 November 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_649398cf89e1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_649398cf89e1
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.