Oil faces a short-term glut caused by U.S. fracking.

Judge as of January 2016. True: EIA/IEA data show global oil supply exceeding demand (inventory builds) in 2015 to early 2016, with growth in US shale (fracking) output identified as the primary cause. Mostly true: there was a glut, and US fracking was a major but not dominant cause, for example alongside OPEC/Saudi refusal to cut output or weak demand. Mixed: there was a glut, but analysts attribute it about equally or mainly to other factors, with fracking one contributor among several. Mostly false: there was a glut but US fracking played only a minor role, or the oversupply was not short-term. False: there was no oil oversupply at the time.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Rethinking the oil market in the aftermath of the 2014–16 price slump CEPR (VoxEU column by Rabah Arezki) · 18 August 2016

   “The evidence suggests that supply factors are better at explaining the initial collapse in oil prices in 2014 than demand factors. A host of issues are involved, including the rapid increase in shale production in the US; a change in strategy in Saudi Arabia, the largest member of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC);”

2. E2 Rethinking the oil market in the aftermath of the 2014–16 price slump CEPR (VoxEU column by Rabah Arezki) · 18 August 2016

   “Demand factors have also played an important role (Baumeister and Hamilton 2015). Yet oil demand has grown unabated since 2011, when growth in emerging markets first slowed.”

3. E3 Rethinking the oil market in the aftermath of the 2014–16 price slump CEPR (VoxEU column by Rabah Arezki) · 18 August 2016

   “These factors have persisted. The dynamic adjustment of investment in the oil sector to lower prices will continue to shape the speed and extent of any market recovery (IMF 2015).”

The evidence says supply factors, including the rapid rise in US shale production and Saudi Arabia's change in strategy, best explain the 2014 price collapse, and that demand also played a role (E1, E2). It does not rank these causes or give supply, demand or inventory data for 2015 to early 2016, so it cannot show how large fracking's share was, which the criteria need in order to choose between true, mostly true and mixed.