ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“i have argued recently (see that real home prices will fall 20 to 30% over the next three years or so, not over the next year as incorrectly reported in this interview.”

Nouriel Roubini, blog author 25 September 2006 The Coming Housing and Economic Crash: My Interview Today with New York Magazine (EconoMonitor) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

US real home prices will fall 20 to 30 percent over the next three years or so, from September 2006.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Measure: the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index deflated by CPI-U, from Q3 2006 (September 2006) to about three years later. 'Or so' covers readings from Q3 2009 through end-2009, and the largest real decline within that window counts. Secondary check: the FHFA purchase-only index deflated by CPI. True: the real decline lies within 20–30%. Mostly true: the Case-Shiller real decline is within 20–30% but another major index lies just outside the range. Mostly false: the real decline is just outside the range (roughly 19–20% or 30–31%), or reaches 20–30% only after end-2009. False: the real decline is clearly below 19% or clearly above 31% at the horizon.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (7)

  1. E1 Table Data - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC · 27 October 2026

    “| 2006-09-01 | 182.797 |”

  2. E2 Table Data - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC · 27 October 2026

    “| 2009-09-01 | 148.023 |”

  3. E3 Table Data - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC · 27 October 2026

    “| 2009-10-01 | 147.850 |”

  4. E4 Table Data - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC · 27 October 2026

    “| 2009-12-01 | 147.931 |”

  5. E5 [PDF] S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - The Basis Point Standard & Poor's (press release mirrored on The Basis Point) · 24 November 2009

    “The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded an 8.9% decline in the third quarter of 2009 versus the third quarter of 2008.”

  6. E6 [PDF] S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - The Basis Point Standard & Poor's (press release mirrored on The Basis Point) · 24 November 2009

    “As of the 3rd quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in autumn 2003.”

  7. E7 Case-Shiller index - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “The S&P index attained an all-time high in July 2006, at a value of 206.52.”

Reasoning

The FRED table shows the nominal Case-Shiller U.S. National index at 182.797 in September 2006 (E1). It reads 148.023 in September 2009 (E2), 147.850 in October 2009 (E3) and 147.931 in December 2009 (E4). That is a nominal decline of about 19.0–19.1% over the window. The criteria call for the index deflated by CPI-U, but the evidence gives no CPI figures, and none for the secondary FHFA check. E5 and E6 are also nominal only, so the real decline cannot be worked out from the evidence given, and the claim cannot be placed inside or outside the 20–30% range.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “US real home prices will fall 20 to 30 percent over the next three years or so, from September 2006.” (said 25 September 2006). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_60fa71a98e81, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_60fa71a98e81

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nouriel Roubini, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini

  1. Mostly false Prediction 27 October 2023
    “As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”

    US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).

  2. Mostly false Prediction 3 January 2023
    “They are talking tough [but if] faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, they’re going to wimp out.”

    Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So it’s much worse than the ‘70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”

    The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So history suggests it’s going to be near mission impossible to avoid a hard landing.”

    History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy.

  5. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “I’ve made the argument, and this is not the conventional wisdom, that the recession is not going to be short and shallow”

    The coming US recession will not be short and shallow.

All of them

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