The probability shown in the chart in the post was almost monotonically decreasing, lower each day than the day before.

This claim is about the chart in the March 2022 post. True: the probability in that chart falls, or stays flat, from day to day over the period shown, with at most a few small upticks, so 'almost monotonically decreasing' is a fair description. Mostly true: the trend is clearly downward with a handful of small daily rises. Mixed: the trend is downward overall, but there are several noticeable rises. Mostly false: the series falls overall but swings up and down a lot, so the description overstates how steady it is. False: the series does not fall over the period, or it moves up and down with no clear trend.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Ukraine #4: Prediction Market Movement Modeling Zvi Mowshowitz (thezvi.wordpress.com) · 15 March 2022

   “This is a steady climb downwards, and Scott wonders about whether it is a predictable and thus false pattern.”

2. E2 Ukraine #4: Prediction Market Movement Modeling Zvi Mowshowitz (thezvi.wordpress.com) · 15 March 2022

   “Each day of this makes it more likely Kyiv can hold out longer, reducing chances of a fall each day going forward, so things should reduce faster than the proportion of time expired.”

3. E3 Mantic Monday 3/21/22 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 21 March 2022 Own record

   “Will Kiev fall to Russian forces by April 2022?: 14% —→ 2%”

E1 is an independent commentator writing the day after the post. It calls the chart Scott discussed "a steady climb downwards", which fits the "almost monotonically decreasing" description. E2 gives a reason the Kyiv-fall probability would keep falling day by day, but it is reasoning, not a description of the chart. E3 comes from the subject and covers a later period, a drop from 14% to 2%. So it fits a continuing decline but does not describe the chart itself. Only one independent source describes the chart, and it does not give day-by-day values, so the verdict is mostly true rather than fully true.