Fed chairs Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan overtly bragged about their success in driving asset prices, particularly stocks, higher.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen each overtly took credit, in public, for Fed policy pushing up asset prices, especially stock prices. TRUE: public statements by all three (speeches, testimony, op-eds, interviews) explicitly cite rising stock or asset prices as an achievement or intended effect of their policies. Examples would be Bernanke's 2010 Washington Post op-ed on higher stock prices, and similar remarks by Greenspan and Yellen. MOSTLY TRUE: two clearly did so and the third did so only in milder terms, such as describing a wealth effect. MIXED: only one did so clearly, or all three only described asset-price channels neutrally, without claiming success. MOSTLY FALSE: the statements merely mention that asset prices respond to policy, and calling them overt bragging is a distortion. FALSE: none of the three made such statements.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (7)
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E1 Op-ed Column Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, op-ed for The Washington Post) · 5 November 2010
“This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate this additional action.”
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E2 Op-ed Column Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, op-ed for The Washington Post) · 5 November 2010
“And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.”
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E3 Testimony, Greenspan -- Humphrey-Hawkins -- July 21, 1998 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan) · 21 July 1998
“In the context of subdued price increases and generally supportive credit conditions, rising equity values have provided impetus to spending and, in turn, the expansion of output, employment, and productivity-enhancing capital investment.”
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E4 FRB: Testimony, Greenspan -- State of the economy -- January 20, 1999 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan) · 20 January 1999
“We were not attempting to prop up equity prices, nor did we plan to continue to ease rates until equity prices recovered, as some have erroneously inferred. This has not been, and is not now, our policy or intent.”
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E5 Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan: The Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 21 July 1998
“In any event, primarily because of the rise in stock prices, about $12-1/2 trillion has been added to the value of household assets since the end of 1994.”
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E6 Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan: The Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 21 July 1998
“In the context of subdued price increases and generally supportive credit conditions, rising equity values have provided impetus to spending and, in turn, the expansion of output, employment, and productivity-enhancing capital investment.”
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E7 Transcript of Chair Yellen's Press Conference, March 15, 2017 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 15 March 2017
“So I think the higher level of stock prices is one factor that looks like it's likely to somewhat boost consumption spending.”
Reasoning
Bernanke's 2010 op-ed clearly presents rising stock prices as an effect of Fed action that boosts wealth and spending (E1, E2). Greenspan's 1998 testimony only describes rising equity values and their effect on spending, without crediting Fed policy (E3, E5, E6). In 1999 he went further and denied trying to prop up equity prices (E4). The only Yellen evidence is from a 2017 press conference, after the 2016 judging date, and it neutrally notes a possible boost to consumption from stock prices (E7). Since only one of the three clearly took credit, the criteria give a verdict of mixed.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Fed chairs Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan overtly bragged about their success in driving asset prices, particularly stocks, higher.” (said 2016). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_4f4572ad45a4, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4f4572ad45a4
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Mostly false
“the lowest rates in the history of man,”
Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.
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Mostly true
“31 years later, the land is not back, and stocks are not back.”
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Mostly true
“one of the two or three lowest relative points in history”
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Mostly true
“Now we have, since ChatGPT and October and November last year, we have a new little flurry of interest that is very concentrated.”
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Mixed
“in 1974 the market did turn up, after a horrific 62% real decline in two years, exactly”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.