Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged over 2018–2023. Measures: religious affiliation, the share of 'nones', church membership and attendance (Gallup, Pew, GSS), and the public role of religion, meaning religion's perceived influence on American life and its place in law and politics. True: these measures largely kept moving away from religion through 2023. Mostly true: affiliation, membership and attendance clearly declined, with only minor offsetting signs. Mixed: the private measures declined but religion's public and legal role grew substantially (e.g. major court rulings expanding religion in public life, or a stronger religious-right presence in politics), so 'public life' as a whole did not clearly retreat. Mostly false: most measures were flat or reversed. False: the measures show religion clearly growing in US public life over the period.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Church Attendance Has Declined in Most U.S. Religious Groups Gallup · 25 March 2024
“Two decades ago, an average of 42% of U.S. adults attended religious services every week or nearly every week. A decade ago, the figure fell to 38%, and it is currently at 30%.”
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E2 How Religious Are Americans? Gallup · 29 March 2024
“Additionally, less than half of Americans, 45%, belong to a formal house of worship. Church membership has been below the majority level each of the past four years.”
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E3 Executive summary Pew Research Center · 26 February 2025
“Some key measures of religious belief and practice also have held fairly steady in recent years.”
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E4 Has the rise of religious ‘nones’ come to an end in the U.S.? Pew Research Center · 24 January 2024
“In Pew Research Center’s 2023 polling, 28% of U.S. adults are religiously unaffiliated, describing themselves as atheists, agnostics or simply “nothing in particular” when asked about their religion.”
Reasoning
The Gallup figures show a long-term fall in attendance and membership below a majority in recent years, but they do not isolate a decline within 2018–2023 (E1, E2). Pew says some key measures held fairly steady in recent years and gives only a single 2023 share for the unaffiliated (E3, E4), and no evidence item covers religion's public or legal role, so the criteria cannot be applied.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023.” (said 15 February 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_4ece759e0eae, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4ece759e0eae
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
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Mixed
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Mixed
“Religion will continue to retreat from US public life.”
Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023.
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Mostly true
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Mostly true
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Mostly true
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