Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge over 2018–2023 using standard national indicators of religion's role in US public life: the share of adults with a religious affiliation or who identify as Christian (Pew, Gallup, GSS), membership of a house of worship (Gallup), the share saying religion is very important or that it is losing influence in American life (Gallup/Pew), and attendance at services. True: most of these indicators continue to fall or stay at record lows through 2023, with no sustained reversal. Mostly true: the general decline continues but one indicator stays flat or rises somewhat. Mixed: the indicators are split, or the decline clearly stalls for much of the period. Mostly false: most indicators are flat or show a modest rebound by 2023. False: religious affiliation, membership and stated importance rise clearly over 2018–2023. Court rulings or the political role of religious groups count only as context. The main test is the trend in the survey measures.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Executive summary Pew Research Center · 26 February 2025
“The 2023-24 Religious Landscape Study (RLS) and other Pew Research Center polling find that the Christian share of the population, after years of decline, has been relatively stable since 2019.”
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E2 Executive summary Pew Research Center · 26 February 2025
“And the religiously unaffiliated population, after rising rapidly for decades, has leveled off – at least temporarily.”
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E3 Executive summary Pew Research Center · 26 February 2025
“33% say they go to religious services at least once a month. Since 2020, the percentages saying this have consistently hovered in the low 30s.”
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E4 Executive summary Pew Research Center · 26 February 2025
“But in future years we may see further declines in the religiousness of the American public, for several reasons:”
Reasoning
Pew's 2023-24 Religious Landscape Study reports that the Christian share of US adults has been relatively stable since 2019 after years of decline (E1). It also reports that the share with no religious affiliation has leveled off, at least for now (E2). Monthly attendance at religious services has stayed in the low 30s percent since 2020 (E3). Together these show the decline in these measures stalled for much of the period: the Christian share has been relatively stable since 2019 [E1], monthly attendance has hovered in the low 30s since 2020 [E3], and the unaffiliated share has leveled off, with no start date given [E2]. This matches the 'mixed' criterion. There is no evidence here on house-of-worship membership or on how important people say religion is. Pew suggests further declines may come later (E4), but that does not change the trend within the period.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023.” (said 2018). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_0a34b0810fe5, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0a34b0810fe5
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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