ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“If it does the global fallout would include a 1970s-style oil shock, crashing equities & stagflationary recession”

Nouriel Roubini, economist, on X 10 November 2023 Post by @Nouriel on X, 2023-11-10 (X)

Prediction Economics and markets

If the Gaza war escalates into a regional war, global fallout would include a 1970s-style oil shock, crashing equities and a stagflationary recession.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

It is a conditional prediction with no stated time horizon, and this claim was not researched, so the material does not show whether the condition (a regional war) has occurred.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “If the Gaza war escalates into a regional war, global fallout would include a 1970s-style oil shock, crashing equities and a stagflationary recession.” (said 10 November 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_471dd37eba6c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_471dd37eba6c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini

  1. Mostly false Prediction 27 October 2023
    “As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”

    US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).

  2. Mostly false Prediction 3 January 2023
    “They are talking tough [but if] faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, they’re going to wimp out.”

    Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So it’s much worse than the ‘70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”

    The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So history suggests it’s going to be near mission impossible to avoid a hard landing.”

    History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy.

  5. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “I’ve made the argument, and this is not the conventional wisdom, that the recession is not going to be short and shallow”

    The coming US recession will not be short and shallow.

All of them

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