ClaimsElon Musk

“we think probably we should be able to achieve 30% of targeted design capacity in 2022.”

Elon Musk, CEO, on Tesla earnings call 27 January 2021 Tesla Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool) archived copy

Guidance Their own work or organisation

Tesla thinks it probably should be able to achieve 30% of targeted design cell capacity in 2022.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Guidance: A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Measure: the output of Tesla's in-house (4680) cell production lines during 2022, as a share of the targeted design capacity Tesla stated for those lines. 'Achieve 30%' means reaching an annualised production run-rate of at least 30% of that design capacity at some point in 2022. TRUE: Tesla data or credible reporting shows a run-rate of 30% or more of design capacity by 31 December 2022. MOSTLY TRUE: about 27–30% of design capacity in 2022. MOSTLY FALSE: real ramp progress but well below 30% (about 10–27%), or 30% reached only after 2022. FALSE: under about 10% of design capacity in 2022.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (8)

  1. E1 Tesla confirms 4680 battery cell production is now enough for 1,000 cars a week Electrek · 25 December 2022

    “Today, Tesla confirmed the actual production rate for the first time – stating that the team produced 868,000 4680 battery cells over the last week:”

  2. E2 Tesla confirms 4680 battery cell production is now enough for 1,000 cars a week Electrek · 25 December 2022

    “Since then, Tesla has only released a few statements about percentage increases in its production rate without confirming the actual production rate.”

  3. E3 EarningsCall · TSLA Q4 2022 EarningsCall (third-party transcript site) · 25 January 2023 Own record

    “Regarding batteries, production rate of 4680 cells reached 1000 cars a week at the end of last year, and we're increasing capacity for 4680 cells by another 100 gigawatt hours, as announced at Giga Nevada yesterday.”

  4. E4 Tesla makes progress on 4680 battery cells, reduces dependence on them Electrek · 20 October 2022

    “The ramp is going well, as Elon said – total output is up 3x quarter over quarter, and production is tracking to exceed 1,000 car cells per week this quarter.”

  5. E5 Tesla 4680-Type Battery Cell Production Nears 1 Million/Week InsideEVs · 26 December 2022

    “According to the company's tweet, the team managed to produce roughly 868,000 4680-type cylindrical lithium-ion battery cells during the last 7 days.”

  6. E6 Tesla 4680-Type Battery Cell Production Nears 1 Million/Week InsideEVs · 26 December 2022

    “Tesla initially said that the pilot production line is expected to produce 10 GWh of batteries annually.”

  7. E7 Tesla 4680-Type Battery Cell Production Nears 1 Million/Week InsideEVs · 26 December 2022

    “Well, if we combined the number of more than 1,000 Model Y cars and 50+ weeks per year, the production rate might be at 3.5-4 GWh/year.”

  8. E8 Tesla plans to begin 4680 cell production in Q3 - electrive.com electrive.com · 22 July 2022

    “As the portal “Electrek” extrapolates, this would correspond to an annual production capacity of less than four GWh.”

Reasoning

The evidence puts late-2022 4680 output at about 868,000 cells a week, or roughly 3.5–4 GWh a year (E1, E5, E7). It does not settle which design capacity this should be compared with. Against the 10 GWh pilot-line figure (E6) it would be above 30%, and against the 200 GWh mentioned in the quote's surroundings it would be far below 30%. No evidence item establishes a share in the 27–30% range.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Tesla thinks it probably should be able to achieve 30% of targeted design cell capacity in 2022.” (said 27 January 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_44b212c43ab7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_44b212c43ab7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Elon Musk, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More guidance claims by Elon Musk

  1. Resolved false Guidance 27 January 2022
    “we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, you know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.”

    Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%.

  2. Resolved false Guidance 27 January 2022
    “it might grow by like 200% or 300% or something, you know, as opposed to sort of 50% or something.”

    If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%.

  3. Resolved false Guidance 27 January 2021
    “we've got a 100 gigawatt-hour total Tesla cells produced in 2022.”

    Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022.

  4. Resolved true Guidance 27 January 2021
    “I think this year, we may track to a fair bit about 50%, but we don't want to commit to that”

    Tesla may track to growth of a fair bit above 50% in 2021, though it does not commit to it.

  5. Resolved true Guidance 26 January 2023
    “And the 1.8 million cars, if we get lucky, it could be more.”

    Tesla expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, possibly more if it gets lucky.

All of them

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