ClaimsElon Musk

“we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, you know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO 27 January 2022 Tesla Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)

Guidance Their own work or organisation

Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Guidance: A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

The rule for a forecast that gives a range or a bound: the reported figure has to meet it as stated. A figure outside a range counts as not met whether it came in above or below, so beating a forecast is scored like missing it. The reasoning says which it was.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Measure: growth in Tesla's total vehicle deliveries in 2022 over 2021, as reported by Tesla. This is the measure behind Tesla's stated 50% annual growth target. The bound is 'comfortably above 50%'. TRUE: growth of about 55% or more. MOSTLY TRUE: growth above 50% but under about 55% (above the bound, but not comfortably). MOSTLY FALSE: growth of 49% to 50%. FALSE: growth below 49%.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Fourth Quarter 2022 | Tesla Investor Relations Tesla Investor Relations (Business Wire) · 2 January 2023 Own record

    “In 2022, vehicle deliveries grew 40% YoY to 1.31 million while production grew 47% YoY to 1.37 million.”

  2. E2 Tesla TSLA Q4 2022 vehicle delivery and production numbers CNBC · 2 January 2023

    “Total annual deliveries 2022: 1.31 million”

  3. E3 Tesla Q4 2021 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations Tesla Investor Relations (Business Wire) · 2 January 2022 Own record

    “In 2021, we delivered over 936,000 vehicles.”

Reasoning

In its full-year 2022 release, Tesla says vehicle deliveries grew 40% year over year to 1.31 million (E1). CNBC, an independent source, gives the same 1.31 million total for 2022 (E2). Tesla reported over 936,000 deliveries for 2021 (E3), which also puts growth at about 40%. That is well under the 49% line for false, so the 'comfortably above 50%' expectation resolved false.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%.” (said 27 January 2022). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_1e79e5f2ef1c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1e79e5f2ef1c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Elon Musk, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More guidance claims by Elon Musk

  1. Resolved false Guidance 27 January 2022
    “it might grow by like 200% or 300% or something, you know, as opposed to sort of 50% or something.”

    If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%.

  2. Resolved false Guidance 27 January 2021
    “we've got a 100 gigawatt-hour total Tesla cells produced in 2022.”

    Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022.

  3. Resolved true Guidance 27 January 2021
    “I think this year, we may track to a fair bit about 50%, but we don't want to commit to that”

    Tesla may track to growth of a fair bit above 50% in 2021, though it does not commit to it.

  4. Resolved true Guidance 26 January 2023
    “And the 1.8 million cars, if we get lucky, it could be more.”

    Tesla expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, possibly more if it gets lucky.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.