ClaimsElon Musk

“I think this year, we may track to a fair bit about 50%, but we don't want to commit to that”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, on earnings call 27 January 2021 Tesla Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool) archived copy

Guidance Their own work or organisation

Tesla may track to growth of a fair bit above 50% in 2021, though it does not commit to it.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Guidance: A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

The rule for a forecast that gives a range or a bound: the reported figure has to meet it as stated. A figure outside a range counts as not met whether it came in above or below, so beating a forecast is scored like missing it. The reasoning says which it was.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Measure: growth in Tesla's total vehicle deliveries in 2021 over 2020, as reported by Tesla. The bar is the claim's own: 'a fair bit above 50%'. TRUE: growth of about 55% or more. MOSTLY TRUE: growth above 50% but under about 55% (above 50%, but not by 'a fair bit'). MOSTLY FALSE: growth just under 50% (49–50%). FALSE: growth below 49%.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 Tesla Q4 2021 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations Tesla Investor Relations (Business Wire release) · 2 January 2022 Own record

    “In 2021, we delivered over 936,000 vehicles.”

  2. E2 Tesla nears million-vehicle mark in 2021, despite supply-chain challenges Green Car Reports · 4 January 2022

    “Tesla delivered a record 936,172 vehicles in 2021, according to a company financial report, up from 499,550 vehicles in 2020 and 367,500 in 2019”

Reasoning

Green Car Reports, citing a company financial report, gives Tesla's deliveries as 936,172 vehicles in 2021 and 499,550 in 2020 (E2). Tesla's own release separately says it delivered over 936,000 vehicles in 2021 (E1). That works out to growth of about 87%, well above the roughly 55% that counts as 'a fair bit above 50%' under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Tesla may track to growth of a fair bit above 50% in 2021, though it does not commit to it.” (said 27 January 2021). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_08667a5266a4, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_08667a5266a4

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Elon Musk, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More guidance claims by Elon Musk

  1. Resolved false Guidance 27 January 2022
    “we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, you know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.”

    Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%.

  2. Resolved false Guidance 27 January 2022
    “it might grow by like 200% or 300% or something, you know, as opposed to sort of 50% or something.”

    If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%.

  3. Resolved false Guidance 27 January 2021
    “we've got a 100 gigawatt-hour total Tesla cells produced in 2022.”

    Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022.

  4. Resolved true Guidance 26 January 2023
    “And the 1.8 million cars, if we get lucky, it could be more.”

    Tesla expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, possibly more if it gets lucky.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.