Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war).

Judged over calendar year 2016. Count Israeli deaths, civilians and security forces, caused by Palestinian violence (attacks, an uprising) in Israel, the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, leaving out deaths in a Cast Lead–style conventional military operation or war. True: 250 or fewer such Israeli deaths in 2016 and no widely recognised new intifada. Mostly true: 250 or fewer deaths, but some commentators labelled the violence an intifada. Mostly false: more than 250 deaths, but most were not from a sustained uprising. False: more than 250 Israeli deaths from a sustained Palestinian uprising (outside a Cast Lead–style war) in 2016.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Record number of demolitions in 2016; casualty toll declines | United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - Occupied Palestinian Territory UN OCHA oPt · 29 December 2016

   “As of 27 December, 109 Palestinians and 13 Israelis were killed during 2016 in attacks and clashes in the occupied Palestinian territory and Israel. This represents a drop down from 169 Palestinian and 25 Israeli fatalities recorded during 2015.”

2. E2 2016: A deadly year in the occupied Palestinian territory and Israel Middle East Monitor · 2 January 2017

   “In 2016, Ma’an recorded the deaths of a total of 129 individuals from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 2016. Of these dead, 111 were Palestinian (86 percent of deaths), 15 were Israeli (11.6 percent of deaths), and three were foreign nationals (2.3 percent of deaths) – one American, one Sudanese, and one Jordanian.”

3. E3 2016: A deadly year in the occupied Palestinian territory and Israel Middle East Monitor · 2 January 2017

   “The wave of violence, termed by some as the “Jerusalem Intifada,” began in October 2015 and to date has seen 246 Palestinians killed by Israelis, with 135 Palestinians killed between the months of October and December 2015 alone.”

4. E4 Year in review: 10 Israel news storylines that defined 2016 JNS.org · 27 December 2016

   “The months-long wave of Palestinian terrorism that began in September 2015 in Israel—commonly known as the “knife intifada” because many of the attacks were stabbings—began to wane in March and April 2016.”

UN OCHA's count as of 27 December 2016 gave 13 Israelis killed in attacks and clashes in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory that year (E1). Ma'an's full-year count, reported by Middle East Monitor, gave 15 (E2). Both are far below the 250-death threshold. However, the 2016 violence was part of a wave that some called the "Jerusalem Intifada" or "knife intifada" (E3, E4), and E4 says it began to wane in March and April 2016. Because some commentators used the intifada label, the criteria point to mostly true rather than true.