ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“In the GFC, the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%.”

Nouriel Roubini, economist, interviewee 6 November 2022 Nouriel Roubini interview: recession, inflation, Great Depression (Fortune) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Use the S&P 500 peak-to-trough decline during the Great Financial Crisis (Oct 2007 peak about 1,565 to the March 2009 trough about 677 close or 667 intraday). True: the decline is about 45–58%. Mostly true: it is 40–45% or 58–62%. Mostly false: it is 30–40% or above 62%. False: it is below 30%.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Notes from the Vault: Stock Prices in the Financial Crisis Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Center for Financial Innovation and Stability (author: Gerald P. Dwyer) · September 2009

    “This index fell even more— 56.8 percent from its peak on October 9, 2007, to a low point on March 9, 2009.”
  2. E2 The Great Recession Federal Reserve History · 22 November 2013

    “while the S&P 500 index fell 57 percent from its October 2007 peak to its trough in March 2009.”
  3. E3 Notes from the Vault: Stock Prices in the Financial Crisis Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Center for Financial Innovation and Stability (author: Gerald P. Dwyer) · September 2009

    “Stock prices fell roughly 50 percent from peak to trough from October 2007 to March 2009.”

Reasoning

E1 says the index fell 56.8 percent from its October 9, 2007 peak to a low on March 9, 2009. E2 (Federal Reserve History) gives the S&P 500's decline from the October 2007 peak to the March 2009 trough as 57 percent. E3 says stock prices fell roughly 50 percent from peak to trough over the same period. The S&P 500 decline of 57 percent given in E2 falls inside the 45–58% band the criteria set for true; E1 gives 56.8 percent for an index and E3 gives roughly 50 percent for stock prices over the same period.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%.” (said 6 November 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_444da7d71774, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_444da7d71774

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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  3. Mixed Factual 3 January 2023
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    Food prices were already spiking before the invasion because desertification in many parts of the world limits the food supply.

  5. Mostly true Factual 3 January 2023
    “All the zombie institutions that survived before because we had negative [interest] rates, quantitative easing [and] credit easing, now face rising debt servicing ratios.”

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All of them

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