ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“US equities down 4% from peak as Stagflationary pressures persist: lower growth and higher inflation.”

Nouriel Roubini, on X 14 September 2021 Post by @Nouriel on X, 2021-09-14 (X)

Factual Economics and markets

As of 2021-09-14, US equities were down 4% from their peak.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Use the S&P 500 (or a similar broad US index) close on 14 Sep 2021 versus its prior record close (around 2 Sep 2021). True: the decline was about 3–5%. Mostly true: about 2–3% or 5–6%. Mixed: about 1–2% or 6–8%. Mostly false: under 1% or 8–10%. False: the index was at or above its peak, or down more than 10%. The stagflation commentary is not tested.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 S&P 500 (^GSPC) Historical Data - Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance

    “| Sep 14, 2021 | 4,479.33 | 4,485.68 | 4,435.46 | 4,443.05 | 4,443.05 | 3,670,460,000 |”

  2. E2 S&P 500 (^GSPC) Historical Data - Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance

    “| Sep 2, 2021 | 4,534.48 | 4,545.85 | 4,524.66 | 4,536.95 | 4,536.95 | 3,735,990,000 |”

Reasoning

Yahoo Finance's S&P 500 history lists a close of 4,443.05 on Sep 14, 2021 [E1] and 4,536.95 on Sep 2, 2021 [E2], which is the prior-peak reference date the criteria name. That is a decline of about 2.1% from the Sep 2 close, not 4%. A decline of 2–3% falls in the 'mostly true' band of the criteria.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “As of 2021-09-14, US equities were down 4% from their peak.” (said 14 September 2021). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_40e024312b7e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_40e024312b7e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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  3. Mixed Factual 3 January 2023
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  5. Mostly true Factual 3 January 2023
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All of them

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