There is a glut of new condos in Manhattan and it is getting worse.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of September 2006. True: Manhattan market reports from 2006 (for example Miller Samuel/Prudential Douglas Elliman, Corcoran) show a large or growing supply of new condo units, with rising inventory, longer days on market or falling absorption, and describe this as an oversupply or glut. Mostly true: inventory of new condos was clearly rising and elevated, but 'glut' slightly overstates it. Mixed: inventory rose but sales stayed strong, so the evidence of oversupply is ambiguous. Mostly false: there was some increase in new condo supply, but reports show it was being absorbed, with prices still rising and no material oversupply. False: inventory was stable or falling, with no sign of oversupply.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 "Manhattan Has Most Apartments for Sale Since 1994, Report Says " - By: null, Bloomberg | The Corcoran Group Bloomberg (reprinted on The Corcoran Group site) · 6 July 2006
“Manhattan apartment sales fell 15 percent in the second quarter because of rising mortgage rates, leaving more units on the market than at any time in at least a dozen years, according to a new report.”
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E2 "Manhattan Has Most Apartments for Sale Since 1994, Report Says " - By: null, Bloomberg | The Corcoran Group Bloomberg (reprinted on The Corcoran Group site) · 6 July 2006
“Unsold units climbed 54 percent to 7,640, the highest since at least 1994.”
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E3 "Manhattan Has Most Apartments for Sale Since 1994, Report Says " - By: null, Bloomberg | The Corcoran Group Bloomberg (reprinted on The Corcoran Group site) · 6 July 2006
“It took an average of 144 days to sell a unit in the borough in the quarter, an increase from 102 days a year ago, according to Miller's data.”
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E4 FRB: Beige Book--New York--November 29, 2006 Federal Reserve Bank (Beige Book, Second District - New York) · 29 November 2006
“there has been some pickup in co-op and condo sales, stemming the rise in the inventory of unsold units.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows record-high overall Manhattan apartment inventory and longer selling times in mid-2006 [E1][E2][E3], and a later easing of the rise in unsold co-op and condo inventory [E4], but none of it separates out new condo supply, which the criteria require to judge a glut of new condos.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “There is a glut of new condos in Manhattan and it is getting worse.” (said 25 September 2006). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_40192a929d96, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_40192a929d96
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.