ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“Peter Thiel called it five years ago.”

Balaji Srinivasan, author of X post 31 March 2020 Post by @balajis on X, 2020-03-31 (X)

Factual Biosecurity

Peter Thiel had warned about biomedical red tape about five years before March 2020.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

True: a dated record from about 2013-2017 (roughly five years before March 2020) shows Peter Thiel warning that FDA or biomedical regulation is too restrictive, in a way that expressly anticipated problems in an epidemic or health emergency. Mostly true: Thiel publicly argued in that window that biomedical red tape (e.g. the FDA) should be cut back, but without tying it specifically to pandemics, or the date is a year or two outside the window. Mixed: Thiel made such criticisms, but only well outside the window or only in passing. Mostly false: Thiel's recorded statements on the subject are only loosely related, such as general anti-regulation remarks with no biomedical focus. False: there is no such statement by Thiel, or the record shows he took the opposite position.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Donald Trump’s ‘shadow president’ in Silicon Valley Politico · 28 February 2017

    “He expounded on that view in a 2015 interview with The Washington Post in which he aired his concern that “the FDA is too restrictive,” that “pharmaceutical sales are way too bureaucratic,””
  2. E2 Peter Thiel and the FDA Closer Readings (WordPress blog) · 23 March 2015

    “However, the matter Thiel kept returning to was the FDA’s regulatory approval process and how it limits the potential social gains from greater innovation in the health space.”
  3. E3 Peter Thiel and the FDA Closer Readings (WordPress blog) · 23 March 2015

    “Conversely he argues for less emphasis on the efficacy of the drug but not a reduction in the safety standard expected.”

Reasoning

Politico (E1) reports that in a 2015 Washington Post interview Thiel said "the FDA is too restrictive" and that pharmaceutical sales are "way too bureaucratic". A March 2015 blog post (E2, E3) says Thiel kept coming back to how the FDA's approval process limits health innovation, and that he wanted less emphasis on proving efficacy. Both are dated about five years before March 2020, but neither shows Thiel connecting his criticism to an epidemic or health emergency. Under the criteria that makes the claim mostly true rather than true.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “Peter Thiel had warned about biomedical red tape about five years before March 2020.” (said 31 March 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_3b2c3f03d259, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3b2c3f03d259

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Balaji Srinivasan

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    “But Europe has reported low quality masks and tests imported from China.”

    Europe has reported low quality masks and tests imported from China.

  2. Resolved true Factual 28 March 2020
    “This may be why many doctors were not going on the record over the past few weeks to speak about equipment shortages: fear of retaliation.”

    Fear of retaliation may be why many doctors did not go on the record in recent weeks about equipment shortages.

  3. Mostly true Factual 13 March 2020
    “So the short version is that you take a swab, collect a sample from the patient's mouth or nose, you send it to a lab and you get back a positive or negative test result.”

    COVID-19 testing involves taking a swab from the patient's mouth or nose, sending it to a lab, and receiving a positive or negative result.

  4. Resolved true Factual 13 March 2020
    “And it's about about 10 percent.”

    If about 100 people in San Francisco had the virus, there would be about a 10 percent chance that a 1,000-person gathering includes an infected person.

  5. Resolved true Factual 13 March 2020
    “Even though it's called real time PCR. It's not it's not that fast.”

    Real-time PCR is not especially fast; 'real time' refers to something different.

All of them

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